Apple Share Buyback Hits Record High, A “Shrinking” Apple
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Apple Share Buyback Hits Record High
A “Shrinking” Apple
Happy Tuesday. Today’s update will have a share buyback theme. While we received a few new buyback data points in Apple’s 2024 10-K, the discussion won’t be focused on just 4Q24 trends.
Let’s jump right in.
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Notes From Apple’s 3Q22 10-Q, Tracking Apple’s Paid Subscriptions, Apple's Share Buyback Update
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Notes From Apple’s 3Q22 10-Q
Tracking Apple’s Paid Subscriptions
Apple's Share Buyback Update
We kick things off by discussing the key takeaways from Apple’s 3Q22 10-Q that jumped out at Neil. The update then turns to Apple’s paid subscriptions disclosure and Neil’s estimates for the quarterly growth rate in the number of subscriptions. We conclude with a look at how Apple’s share buyback has been trending.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
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Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.
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Apple Stock Buyback Debate (Continued), Projections for Apple’s Buyback Pace, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Stock Buyback Debate (Continued)
Projections for Apple’s Buyback Pace
Thursday Q&A
We begin today’s update with additional comments on the newest Above Avalon article, “Apple Won the Share Buyback Debate.” In particular, we go over how Wall Street’s approach to share repurchases has changed over the years when it comes to the “tech” giants buying back their stock. The discussion also goes over the three phases of Apple’s share buyback program. The update then turns to my estimates for Apple’s share buyback pace going forward. The email concludes with a new installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Regarding Apple’s removal of Parler from the App Store, don’t App Store review guidelines make it difficult for smaller companies to compete against the giants?
You previously mentioned that owning car factories would become a liability in the future. Can you go into that in more detail? What did you mean when you wrote “to truly rethink the car, look at the car seat”?
Will the auto industry become more like the TV space where there are many different players each with a small share of the market or will we see something more like the smartphone space with a few big players?
What do you make of IDC and Gartner projecting huge growth numbers for Mac over the holidays?
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 1,000 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
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