4Q22 iPhone Installed Base, iPhone Installed Base Growth Trajectory (Daily Update)
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4Q22 iPhone Installed Base
Last week, we went over my estimates for the Apple Watch installed base as of the end of September. Today, we will discuss the iPhone installed base. It’s been a year since we examined the issue.
Before we go any further, it is important to go over definitions. Unlike the Apple Watch installed base, Apple has provided an iPhone installed base figure from time to time. Apple defines the iPhone installed base as the number of iPhones in the wild. My definition is slightly different - the number of people using an iPhone. This includes both consumers who bought a new iPhone from Apple or a third-party retailer as well people using pre-owned or hand-me-down iPhones. If you use an iPhone, regardless of where it came from, you are part of the iPhone installed base.
Apple’s installed base definition will lead to a slightly higher iPhone total versus my definition. For today’s discussion, the difference won't change any observations or outcomes. There aren't many people using more than one iPhone.
The methodology used to derive my iPhone installed base estimate is similar to the one used for the Apple Watch installed base. Accordingly, we won’t spend time going over the steps. The iPhone business is broken into user cohorts/buckets distinguished by the year (2007 to 2022) they purchased their first new iPhone from Apple or a third-party retailer.
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