Neil Cybart 12/23/20 Neil Cybart 12/23/20

Above Avalon Year in Review (2020)

Heading into 2020, the big question facing Apple was found with growth. Apple had reached a billion users. Would Apple be able to reach two billion users in the 2020s by continuing to do what it had been doing or would more in the way of strategy shifts be needed?

As it did with every company, the pandemic turned 2020 into a steady stream of unexpected challenges for Apple. The company needed to figure out a way to continue product development on a global scale with little to no employee travel. Apple retail needed to be completely rethought as social distancing initiatives ruled out the usual crowded Apple stores. Apple events (both WWDC and product unveilings) needed to go virtual.

According to my estimate, Apple saw approximately $20 billion of delayed demand in FY2020 as a result of the pandemic. Approximately 15 million iPhone upgrades were delayed while wearables sales faced pressure due to retail stores being closed. Partially offsetting those headwinds, iPad and Mac results have been stellar as consumers upgrade older machines and look for larger displays to support working at home and distance learning.

Articles

In 2020, I published 15 Above Avalon articles. In looking through the articles, which are accessible to all, there was one overarching theme: Apple’s improving competitiveness in comparison to that of its peers and the steps the company is taking to position itself for continued ecosystem growth in the 2020s.

Here are some of my favorite articles published in 2020 (in no particular order):

Apple Is Pulling Away from the Competition. Relying on an obsession with the user experience, Apple is removing oxygen from every market that it plays in. At the same time, the tech landscape is riddled with increasingly bad bets, indifference, and a lack of vision. Apple is pulling away from the competition to a degree that we haven’t ever seen before.
The Secret to Apple's Ecosystem. Apple’s ecosystem remains misunderstood. There is still much unknown as to what makes the ecosystem tick. From what does Apple’s ecosystem derive its power? Why do loyalty and satisfaction rates increase as customers move deeper into the ecosystem? Apple’s ecosystem ends up being about more than just a collection of devices or services. Apple has been quietly building something much larger, and it’s still flying under the radar.
A Billion iPhone Users. A billion people now have iPhones. According to my estimate, Apple surpassed the billion iPhone users milestone last month. Apple’s top priorities for the iPhone include finding ways to keep the device at the center of people’s lives while at the same time recognizing the paradigm shift ushered in by wearables.
Apple’s $460 Billion Stock Buyback. Share buybacks came under fire earlier this year. Some companies that were recent buyers of their shares found themselves in financial distress and seeking bailouts due to economic fallout from the pandemic. A very good argument can be made that Apple has become the poster child of responsible share repurchases. The company has relied on its stellar free cash flow to fund share repurchases over the years.
Apple Watch and a Paradigm Shift in Computing. Despite being only four years old, the Apple Watch has fundamentally changed the way we use technology. Many tech analysts and pundits continue to look at the Apple Watch as nothing more than an iPhone accessory - an extension of the smartphone that will never have the means or capability of being revolutionary. Such a view is misplaced as it ignores how the Apple Watch has already ushered in a paradigm shift in computing.

The five most popular Above Avalon articles in 2020, as measured by page views, were identical to my favorites list.

Podcast Episodes

There were 16 episodes of the Above Avalon podcast recorded and published in 2020, totaling seven hours. The podcast episodes that correspond to my favorite articles are found below:

Charts

The following charts found in Above Avalon articles were among my favorite published in 2020.

Number of Users

While Apple new user growth rates have slowed, the company is still bringing tens of millions of users into the fold. Due to Apple’s views regarding innovation and its focus on the user experience, once someone enters the Apple ecosystem, odds are good that customer will remain in the ecosystem.

Apple Installed Base (Number of Users)

Apple Non-iPhone Revenue Growth

Apple finds itself in an ecosystem expansion phase. Hundreds of millions of people with only one Apple device, an iPhone, are embarking on a search for more Apple experiences. We see this with non-iPhone revenue growing by double digits in the back half of 2020 on a TTM basis, which is higher than growth rates seen in the mid-2010s.

Apple Non-iPhone Revenue Growth Projection

The Apple Innovation Feedback Loop

With Apple Silicon, Apple took lessons learned from personal devices such as Apple Watches, iPhones, and iPads to help push less personal devices, like the Mac, forward.

Daily Updates

In 2020, I published 196 Above Avalon Daily Updates that were available exclusively to Above Avalon members. With each update coming in at approximately 2,000 words, 196 updates are equivalent to seven books. This continues to be an industry-leading number when it comes to the amount of Apple business and strategy analysis published.

When looking over the topics discussed in this year’s daily updates, a few sub themes become apparent:

Apple and the Pandemic

When the pandemic began during the first half of the year, there was much unknown as to how a company like Apple would be impacted. It eventually became clear that Apple and its peers were positioned to do OK during the pandemic although new ways of thinking would be needed to navigate working from home and travel restrictions.

The Paid Video Streaming Battle

With Disney+ and Apple TV+ launching in late 2019 and HBO Max and Peacock launching this past May and July, respectively, 2020 turned out to be the legitimate start of the paid video streaming battle. As the true new kid on the block, Apple learned quite a bit about being more than just a distributor of other people’s content.

Pushback Against the App Store

Apple is pulling away from the competition, and the App Store is considered the best (and last) chance for competitors to reshape the mobile industry to their liking. A series of legal and PR battles were waged against the App Store by a handful of smaller app developers and larger Apple competitors.

Tech CEOs Testify in Front of Congress, Congress’s Concern Regarding Apple, Apple’s Trouble Area (Jul 30, 2020)

When looking at my daily updates published in 2020, selecting a handful of favorites out of 196 updates was not an easy task. The following updates stood out to me (in no particular order):

Apple’s Organizational Structure, Apple’s Leadership Structure, An Autonomous Apple. We first go over my thoughts on Apple’s functional organizational structure and the difference between a functional and multidivisional structure. The discussion then turns to Apple leadership and the ideas of “discretionary leadership” and “experts leading experts.” The update concludes with a revisiting of my Above Avalon article, “Jony Ive, Jeff Williams, and a Larger Apple” and a discussion of how Apple has been able to become a larger design company. (Oct 26, 2020)
Nike Earnings, The Similarity Between Nike and Apple, A Stronger Apple and Nike Partnership. We kick off this update with my thoughts on Nike’s earnings. After going over three structural tailwinds facing Nike, we discuss why I think Nike is pulling away from the competition. The discussion then turns to how Nike is the company most like Apple. The update concludes with a look at how Apple and Nike are both interested in health. We go over the competitive dynamic between the two companies and why it’s premature to conclude that Apple and Nike will become fierce competitors in the future. (Sept 24, 2020)
iPhone Momentum Building in Europe, Apple's Good Timing with iPhone SE, Selling Utility on the Wrist. We begin this update with my thoughts on the iPhone gaining momentum in Europe. The discussion includes new iPhone sales share data and what looks to be some kind of inflection point in the region. We also discuss the possible factors behind the inflection point. The update then turns to how Apple ended up launching the updated iPhone SE at just the right time. We then take a closer look at wearables competition on the wrist. In particular, we go over Fitbit’s latest earnings and compare fitness tracker and smartwatch demand. The discussion concludes with why Amazon Halo faces an uphill battle for wrist real estate. (Sep 3, 2020)
Valuing Big Tech on Free Cash Flow, AAPL vs. Free Cash Flow, AAPL vs. Low Interest Rates. This update begins with my thoughts on the idea that Wall Street has changed the way it is valuing Apple - one away from focusing on P/E ratios (price-to-earnings) and more towards free cash flow valuation. After going over the free cash flow yields for the tech giants, we look specifically at Apple’s declining free cash flow yield and what it tells us about how the market is approaching the company. The update concludes with a discussion of interest rates, inflation, and the U.S. Fed looking to embrace elevated inflation before seeing the need for higher rates. There are various AAPL-related implications associated with that development. (Aug 25, 2020)
Apple Acquires NextVR, Apple Glasses in 2022?, A Wearables Platform for the Face. We begin this update with my thoughts on Apple acquiring NextVR. The discussion includes the reasons why I think Apple acquired NextVR and how the company can play a role in Apple’s product strategy. The update then turns to new rumors about Apple Glasses launch dates. Simply put, the Apple AR / VR rumor mill is getting out of hand. We go over two factors that I think are driving the varied rumors regarding Apple Glasses. The discussion concludes with a different way of thinking about AR / VR and Apple. (May 18, 2020)
Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter, The Power of Apple Retained Earnings, Imploding Demand for Fitbit. We kick off this update by examining Warren Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. Berkshire Hathaway is Apple’s largest individual shareholder. Accordingly, there is value in keeping on top of Berkshire and Warren Buffett (Berkshire’s CEO and Chairman of the Board). The discussion then turns to retained earnings and why Apple’s retained earnings are such a powerful tool. We conclude with a look at Fitbit’s awful 4Q19 earnings and why the company represents such a problem for Google. (Feb 24, 2020)

Here are the five most popular daily updates published in 2020 based on page views:

Just 11% of the daily updates published in 2020 are highlighted above. The full archive consisting of all 196 daily updates is available here. Membership is required to access the updates.

Daily Podcast (Launched in 2020)

In 2020, Above Avalon Daily Updates became available in audio for the first time via a private podcast called Above Avalon Daily. Reception to the daily podcast continues to exceed my expectations with very positive listener feedback. The podcast has allowed members to consume the daily updates in new and different ways while around the house, on a walk, or in the car. More information on the daily podcast, including a few sample episodes, is found here. Above Avalon Daily was launched in August, and 66 episodes were published in 2020, totaling nearly 17 hours of audio. Once a member signs up for the daily podcast, all prior episodes become available for listening in podcast players that support private podcasts.

Here’s to 2021

Without question, 2020 ended up being the busiest year for Apple since Above Avalon was launched in 2014. There was no shortage of newsworthy stories, and all indicators point to the fast pace continuing into 2021. A big thank you goes out to Above Avalon readers, listeners, and members for making 2020 another successful year for Above Avalon.

Neil Cybart 4/23/20 Neil Cybart 4/23/20

Apple's $460 Billion Stock Buyback

Share buybacks have once again come under fire. Some companies that were recent buyers of their shares now find themselves in financial distress and seeking bailouts due to economic fallout from the pandemic. Set within this environment and backlash, Apple is scheduled to provide an update next week on its capital return program, including its share buyback program. The announcement will provide clues for how the poster child of responsible share repurchases is financially navigating the pandemic.

Buyback Pace

Since kicking off its repurchase program in 2013, Apple has spent $327 billion to buy back 2.5 billion shares at an average price of $131 per share. The following exhibit shows Apple’s buyback activity on an annual basis:

Exhibit 1: Apple Share Buyback Pace (Annual - FY)

The pickup in Apple’s buyback pace in FY2018 and FY2019 was due to U.S. tax reform and Apple utilizing cash that had been in non-U.S. subsidiaries. Last year, Apple spent $55 billion buying back 283 million shares (at an $194 average price) in open market transactions. Adding this total to $12B of accelerated share repurchases, Apple spent a total of $67 billion on share buyback. To put that total in perspective, it’s more than the market capitalization of 85% of the companies in the S&P 500.

Buyback Authorization

Every April, Apple’s board of directors, in consultation with management, assesses business trends, the operating environment, and Apple’s financial position, to arrive at an appropriate level of capital return (share repurchases and quarterly cash dividends).

The board has authorized seven consecutive increases to Apple’s share buyback program since the program launched in 2012:

2012: $10 billion buyback authorization
2013: $60 billion (increase of $50 billion)
2014: $90 billion (increase of $30 billion)
2015: $140 billion (increase of $50 billion)
2016: $175 billion (increase of $35 billion)
2017: $210 billion (increase of $35 billion)
2018: $310 billion (increase of $100 billion)
2019: $385 billion (increase of $75 billion)

At the end of December 2019, Apple had $59 billion of share repurchase authorization remaining. Assuming Apple bought back at least $10 billion of shares in FY2Q20 (January to March 2020), the company likely had somewhere closer to $50 billion of authorization remaining at the end of March. This means that without additional authorization, Apple would have about seven months worth of share repurchases remaining. Accordingly, there is a strong likelihood of Apple’s board announcing the eight consecutive increase in share repurchase authorization next week.

My expectation is for Apple’s board to announce a $75 billion increase to buyback authorization next week. This would allow Apple to continue buying back shares at the same pace that it has for the past 24 months. Such an authorization would bring Apple’s total repurchase authorization since 2012 to $460 billion. In order to add flexibility to such authorization, especially given the current environment, Apple will likely have more than 12 months to utilize the authorization. This means that if operating conditions continue to deteriorate over the next 12 months, Apple will have the ability to slow down its share buyback pace and run with a higher level of untapped repurchase authorization.

Although companies are not under obligation to utilize share repurchase authorization, Apple has approached its authorization differently. Many companies announce a new share buyback program in order to benefit from the near-term stock price bump often associated with the announcement. These companies never actually intend to utilize the full buyback authorization. Meanwhile, Apple has been an aggressive repurchaser of its shares, which require material increases in buyback authorization every year.

Buyback Criticism

In recent weeks, share buyback has once again been put under a microscope. The act of taking cash on the balance sheet to buy back shares from shareholders willing to sell is no stranger to criticism. Prior to the pandemic, the most recent uproar regarding buyback occurred during the U.S. tax reform debate as some felt it wasn’t right for companies to use repatriated cash to repurchase shares (and pay cash dividends).

With passenger airline travel coming to a near halt, the airliners find themselves in a dire financial situation. Delta is burning through $60 million of cash a day. The airlines were quick to seek U.S. taxpayer-funded bailouts in the form of grants and loans. The entire episode has left a bad taste in many mouths as the airlines had been aggressive share repurchasers. Instead of establishing some kind of rainy day fund, the airlines used free cash flow to fund share repurchases at prices significantly higher than current stock prices.

Past financial crises have also provided examples of share buyback gone wrong. Some insurers who were busy buying back their shares in 2007 ended up needing to issue shares at significant discounts not long after due to holding toxic mortgage investments. The gas and energy industry turned to share repurchases when oil was at $100 a barrel.

With each example, we have boards and management teams who felt it was prudent in good economic times to buy back their shares. It’s fair to ask if some of these companies used share buyback primarily to hide financial and business shortcomings elsewhere. Bad actors can utilize share buyback for near-term manipulation either through improper signaling to the market or financial engineering. Reducing the number of shares outstanding via buyback results in higher earnings per share figures and return on equity percentages, all else equal.

The Poster Child

And then there is Apple. A very good argument can be made that Apple has become the poster child of responsible share repurchases. The company has relied on its stellar free cash flow to fund share repurchases over the years. Prior to U.S. tax reform and Apple keeping cash generated outside the U.S. in foreign subsidiaries, Apple issued debt at roughly the same pace as foreign cash generation. This resulted in Apple having $285 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities on the balance sheet at the end of 1Q18. After two years of aggressive share repurchases, Apple’s cash total is now closer to $200 billion.

By funding buyback with free cash flow, share repurchases have had zero impact on the amount of cash Apple wants to spend on organic growth initiatives including R&D, M&A, and capital expenditures. Apple is using truly excess cash that it has no use for to repurchase its shares.

Partly to provide a buffer against adverse market conditions and to retain M&A flexibility, Apple is following a net cash neutral strategy which means that the amount of cash held on the balance sheet will eventually equal the amount of outstanding debt. Given Apple’s current debt holdings, this amounts to holding approximately a $100 billion cash cushion in the event of a rainy day. On top of that, given Apple’s unique capex-light business model, the company is able to generate tens of billions of dollars of free cash flow each year even with lower sales due to a global recession.

Since share buyback makes financial sense when repurchases are done at a share price that is less than a company’s intrinsic value, it is much harder to assess a buyback’s effectiveness, or the amount wealth transferred between shareholders selling and holding shares.

The Above Avalon Report, “Share Buyback 101: An Examination of Apple’s Share Repurchase Strategy” contains much more detail on the wealth transfer dynamic found with share buyback. The report is available exclusively to Above Avalon members.

In theory, management teams are in the best position to estimate their company’s intrinsic value. However, it’s easy to see hubris enter the situation with management teams overestimating their strengths while ignoring or downplaying weaknesses and risks. Since Apple is a design company tasked with making tools for people, having an inside view of the product pipeline plays a major role in estimating Apple’s intrinsic value. This may end up giving Apple management an advantage when it comes to assessing buyback’s effectiveness.

Buybacks and the Pandemic

The pandemic has changed the buyback discussion for every public company. Using Apple as an example, it’s not that the company’s intrinsic value, which reflects Apple’s cash flow generating capability in the future, has changed because of economic fallout related to the pandemic. Instead, market dislocations in credit markets have led to a renewed focus on liquidity and balance sheet preservation.

Apple has shown the willingness in the past to pause share repurchases based on adverse market trends. It is possible that Apple paused the buyback last month while credit markets were acting abnormal or the situation in China didn’t bode well for the rest of the world. However, given its stellar balance sheet, there likely is no company in a better position than Apple to buy back shares during a pandemic.

Harsh Reality

The harsh reality found with share buyback is that not every company should buy back their shares. While we can debate just how much of a financial cushion a company should keep in case of a pandemic or natural disaster, it’s much easier to say that overextending a balance sheet in order to buy back shares is unwise.

As the airline industry shows us, additional considerations that should be prioritized when assessing a share repurchase program are the company’s business model, ability to access capital in adverse market conditions, and difference between share price and intrinsic value. A company’s intrinsic value should reflect the sustainability, or lack thereof, of the future cash flow stream.

Share buyback is one of a handful of tools that boards and management teams have to properly manage balance sheets. While some companies have no purpose using the tool, others can benefit immensely from the same tool. Instead of simply casting off share repurchases as ineffective, inappropriate, or even dangerous, attention should go to assessing how a company is using share buyback.

Listen to the corresponding Above Avalon podcast episode for this article here.

Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.