The Above Avalon 2Q21 Recap
In addition to publishing periodic essays and podcast episodes, which are accessible to everyone, I publish exclusive daily updates all about Apple. These emails contain my perspective and analysis on Apple business, product, and financial strategy, in addition to industry developments. The updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple.
During the second quarter of 2021 (April to June), 47 Above Avalon daily updates were published, chronicling the major industry and Apple-specific news stories. Major themes included Apple hosting a virtual WWDC, major developments in the paid video streaming space, bluetooth trackers being put front and center as Apple unveiled AirTags at a spring product event, and tech antitrust legislation / regulation developments.
The Above Avalon 2Q21 Recap begins by going over these major themes and the corresponding daily updates that went over the themes. The focus then shifts to the Above Avalon daily update of the quarter - a daily update that stood out for its Apple analysis.
Major Themes
WWDC 2021
Last month, Apple held its largest event of the year - WWDC. Similar to last year, WWDC 2021 was an impressive one. When considering the breadth of new features announced, no company is in a position to match Apple. By leveraging its ecosystem of products and services to sell premium experiences to a billion people, Apple continues to pull away from the competition.
Video Streaming Industry News
Last year was a big year for paid video streaming as Netflix began to face genuine competition with other paid video bundles. Based on the busy news flow so far in 2021, there continues to be much interest and intrigue found with paid video streaming. The two big industry events that occurred in 2Q21 were AT&T announcing its intention to spin off WarnerMedia with Discovery and Amazon offering $8.5B for MGM. The former is all about AT&T trying to get back to the basics while the latter is about Amazon reducing churn and keeping Prime users as video viewers.
Netflix Earnings, Netflix Is in Denial About Competition, Netflix Announces Share Buyback (May 5)
AT&T to Spin Off WarnerMedia, HBO Max’s Future, Apple Implications (May 17)
Comcast’s Video Streaming Strategy, Ad-Based Streaming Momentum, Revisiting M&A in Video Land (Jun 30)
AirTag / Find My Network / Location Layers
After more than a year of rumor head fakes, Apple finally unveiled its answer for bluetooth trackers at a virtual product event in April. AirTag and the broader idea of finding / locating devices in the physical world is a precursor to Apple building location layers, which will be crucial for the company’s move into AR.
Apple Expands Find My Network, Apple Is Building Location Layers for AR, What About AirTags? (Apr 8)
The Story Behind Apple and VanMoof, Find My Network vs. Tag My Network, Thursday Q&A (Apr 15)
Apple’s Impressive Event (Apr 21)
Amazon Partners With Tile, The Tile Dilemma, Apple Hires New PR Chief (May 10)
Antitrust Legislation / Regulation
Last month, focus was placed on Washington as six anti-tech bills moved from the antitrust subcommittee to the broader judiciary committee. Apple not only held behind closed door discussions with some lawmakers, but also unveiled its public response to the bills by publishing a white paper on iOS side loading and funding more analysis into the App Store ecosystem. As the bills progressed, it became easier to see where opposition to the bills will materialize.
Previewing Apple’s WWDC 2021, A $650B App Store Ecosystem, The App Store Breeds IPOs and M&A (Jun 3)
There were 30 additional updates which covered various Apple topics, tech industry developments, and ideas that were of interest to me. The following updates in particular stood out:
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Daily Update of the Quarter
In June, Apple unveiled Beats Studio Buds for $150. The move led me to investigate Apple’s broader headphones strategy. For non-members, the following update provides a great feel for the length, detail, and analysis that is found in every daily update.
The following was sent out to members on June 17th.
Hello everyone. Given how Beats Studio Buds continue to be on my mind, today’s update is going to be a bit different as we take a deeper dive into Apple’s headphones strategy. We will examine Apple's headphones line, discuss the strategy found with both AirPods and Beats headphones, and conclude with a look at Apple headphones financials.
Dissecting Apple’s Headphones Line
Apple sells three AirPods-branded products:
AirPods (includes H1 chip) for $159. Notes: The model with wireless charging case is $199.
AirPods Pro (H1 chip) for $249. Notes: Has a shorter stem than AirPods and includes active noise cancellation, transparency mode, spatial audio (with head tracking), and multiple size tips.
AirPods Max (includes two H1 chips) for $549. Notes: Comes in five colors and includes active noise cancellation, transparency mode, and spatial audio (with head tracking)
Looking at just those three headphones, AirPods Pro is likely the most popular and best-selling. Apple is now able to use AirPods Max as a price anchor, which makes the $249 for AirPods Pro look even more reasonable than before. The jump from AirPods to AirPods Pro is substantial not only because there is a visible difference between the two, which should not be underestimated as driving purchasing behavior, but also due to a notable expansion in features.
In addition to AirPods, Apple sells a number of Beats-branded headphones (all of which are available in multiple colors).
Beats Flex (includes W1 chip) for $50
Beats EP for $130. Notes: A wired pair of headphones.
Beats Studio Buds for $150. Notes: Truly wireless headphones that include active noise cancellation, transparency mode, spatial audio.
Powerbeats (H1 chip) for $150
Powerbeats Pro (H1 chip) for $170 promotional rate / $250 regular . Notes: Truly wireless headphones.
Beats Solo3 Wireless (W1 chip) for $200
Solo Pro (H1 chip)for $300. Notes: Includes active noise cancellation, transparency mode.
Beats Studio3 Wireless (W1 chip) for $350. Notes: Includes active noise cancellation.
Apple’s H1 chip is the successor to the W1 chip offering better power management, more talk time, faster connection times when switching between Apple devices, and Hey Siri integration.
The first thing that jumps out to me when comparing AirPods to Beats is how much broader the Beats portfolio is compared to the AirPods line (eight Beats models versus just three AirPods models). The other item that is noteworthy is the degree to which Beats headphones include either a W1 or H1 chip. After years of updates, just two Beats headphones, one of which was just announced, lack Apple silicon. This explains why pretty much all of Apple’s Beats revenue has been included within my “Apple wearables” unit sales and revenue estimates.
The fact that pretty much every Beats headphones model contains Apple silicon also shows why Beats Studio Buds present a challenge for me in terms of whether or not to change my “must include Apple silicon” requirement for a product to be included next to AirPods and Apple Watch as an Apple wearable.
One thing that is worth clarifying from yesterday’s update: Despite not including the H1 chip, Beats Studio Buds include Hey Siri integration. This is one of the main reasons for referring to Beats Studio Buds, along with every W1/H1 pair of Beats headphones, as an Apple wearable.
Apple’s Headphones Strategy
Controlling sound is one way of delivering impactful and memorable user experiences. This is a strategy that Apple has been developing for decades .The iPod changed the way we consumed music on the go, offering a much better experience than existing mobile listening options at the time. Then, the iPhone redefined what it meant to bring sound on the go to the mass market. Now, AirPods have been born out of the belief that there isn't a place for wires in a wearables world.
With each product category, the guiding principles are to deliver superior experiences. Along those lines, consider the following features that Apple has rolled out for AirPods over the past four years since launch:
Active noise cancellation
Transparency mode
Spatial audio (with head tracking)
Conversation boost (announced at WWDC 2021)
These features, some may also call them technologies, end up being experiences for sound on the go. This is a key reason why all Apple headphones with either a W1 or H1chip can be thought of as a platform. We are seeing Apple continue to announce new features for its audio platform.
Going forward, health tracking and monitoring capabilities are certainly worth investigating with wireless headphones in mind. In addition, third-party developer support for AirPods seems inevitable as we move into the AR and mixed reality era.
Beats headphones are also part of Apple’s sound-on-the-go strategy. However, Beats serves a different target market than AirPods, which ends up positioning Beats as a compliment to AirPods.
While there is likely some overlap between Beats and AirPods addressable markets, Apple is using the Beats brand to tap into markets that may want a bit more customization than what is found with AirPods. Even if Beats eats into AirPods sales, Apple is not going to be worried or upset as they would much rather be the one eating into AirPods sales than having competitors grab traction.
Turning to Apple’s headphones pricing strategy, if we take the granular information about Apple’s different headphone models from above and look at the line just in terms of prices, we arrive at the following:
$50
$150
$150
$159
$170
$200
$249
$300
$350
$549
The following graph makes it easier to analyze Apple’s headphone pricing spectrum:
Note: The $159 AirPods is included under $150 while the $170 Powerbeats Pro is marked under $175.
Two big observations from the preceding exhibit:
The sweet spot for Apple wireless headphones is in the $150 to $200 range. If you are competing against Apple (AirPods or Beats), it will be tough to price your product above this range. As for AirPods and Beats forming some kind of price umbrella for competitors to undercut Apple, AirPods are routinely available for less than $150 at third-party retailers. Best Buy currently has AirPods at $130 and AirPods Pro for $200. Weaker headphone brands have offerings in the $25 to $50 range but these products are not serious contenders to AirPods. One reason many people buy AirPods is to be seen wearing AirPods. It’s also not easy for companies selling $25 to $50 pairs of wireless headphones to make much money while also trying to match the overall user experience found with $130 to $160 AirPods.
The $549 AirPods Max sure do seem like an outlier going by price. Much of that dynamic likely reflects Apple running with unit sales assumptions for the number of people interested in over-ear headphones and pricing AirPods Max accordingly with the goal of maximizing overall gross margin dollars.
Sizing Up Apple’s Headphones Business
Here are my estimates for Apple headphones revenue (includes both AirPods and Beats headphones)
2017: $2.1B
2018: $3.8B
2019: $7.3B
2020: $12.0B
2021E: $14.5B
Note: The FY2021 total does not include Beats Studio Buds.
On a year-over-year basis, Apple headphones revenue is growing by 15% to 20%. This growth rate is lower than the ~30% seen last year. AirPods sales have slowed a bit due to a combination of factors including the pandemic impacting commuting and replacement sales, lack of updates, and a slowdown in upgrading.
In order to put the $14.5B of revenue in context, the total represents just 4% of Apple’s overall revenue in FY2021E. Compared to iPad or Mac, Apple headphones revenue is trending at about 40% of the revenue seen with those product categories. As for the Apple Watch versus AirPods revenue race, it looks like Apple Watch revenue still exceeds headphones revenue by about $1B per year.
Of the $14.5B headphones revenue total for FY2021E, $2.4B or 16% is from Beats headphones with a W1 or H1 chip. That may come as a surprise to some people who haven’t paid much attention to Beats. However, the Beats brand has been strong for many years, especially in certain verticals like sports. Customer awareness of the brand is up there, which is one reason why Beats headphones include the Beats logo. Since Apple has an even stronger brand relative to Beats, Apple device industrial design is increasingly becoming a type of logo (24-inch iMac, iPhone notch, Apple Watch, AirPods).
One quick note regarding how my Apple headphones revenue estimates are derived. For the past few quarters, Apple has compared the size of its wearables business to that of Fortune 500 firms. In the past, Apple even provided some clues regarding the year-over-year change in wearables revenue. These clues are very helpful in estimating Apple Watch revenue and unit sales and then backing into estimates for both AirPods and Beats. This is one reason why estimating Apple wearables financials is like putting together a giant puzzle.
Turning to unit sales, here are my estimates for the number of headphones Apple sold:
2017: 12M
2018: 24M
2019: 42M
2020: 60M
2021E: 70M
Note: The FY2021 total does not include Beats Studio Buds.
My ASP (average selling price) assumptions for AirPods has increased from about $150 out of the gate to more than $200 today. My Beats ASP assumption is a little over $200.
Seventy million headphones sold per year represents about 15% of the devices that Apple ships annually.
My estimate is that Apple headphones sales to new users is less than the ~75% seen with Apple Watch. This reflects a decent amount of AirPods owners either upgrading to AirPods Pro or simply getting a second (or third) pair. The heavier reliance on sales to upgraders exposes AirPods to more revenue and unit sales volatility than is seen with Apple Watch.
The Above Avalon Daily Update Recap (January 2021)
Along with publishing periodic articles that are accessible to everyone, I publish daily updates all about Apple. These updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around Apple business and strategy analysis, my perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors, and comprehensive coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes. These daily updates have become widely read and influential in the tech sector and Apple universe. The updates are now also available in podcast form called Above Avalon Daily.
Since 90% to 95% of my time is dedicated to researching and writing the daily updates and recording the corresponding daily podcast, I am introducing a new Above Avalon product called The Above Avalon Daily Update Recap to make it easy for everyone to keep abreast of where my focus has been. Each curated recap of the prior month’s updates includes access to one story from a daily update that I particularly enjoyed writing in the previous month.
The daily updates are available exclusive to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
The following story was featured in the Above Avalon Daily Update published on January 14th, 2021 (prior to Apple reporting 1Q21 earnings).
Projections for Apple’s Buyback Pace
Apple has $79B of net cash on the balance sheet. By funding share repurchases and cash dividends, Apple has been gradually chipping away at that total (was $153B in FY17).
Based on my projections, Apple will be able to sustain the current pace of share buyback (approximately $70B per year) for an additional 11 to 13 quarters before net cash gets close to zero.
Where does my 11 to 13 quarters estimate come from?
There is a $25B delta between the amount of cash Apple is returning to shareholders each year ($90B) and annual free cash flow ($65B) - the amount of cash generation leftover after management has paid all of the bills and maintained / funded capital investments. Free cash flow is used to manage debt in addition to fund cash dividends and share repurchases. Meanwhile, Apple has $79B of net cash on the balance sheet. ($79B / $25B = 3.2 years or 13 quarters).
It is important to note that these are rough calculations. Apple’s cash needs will fluctuate year to year. This will have an impact on Apple's free cash flow. In addition, it would not be essential to know the exact moment net cash neutral is obtained, if Apple ever technically gets to that level, but rather when net cash is in the vicinity of $0.
Once Apple reaches a net cash neutral position, my estimate is Apple’s buyback pace will slow to something closer to $50B per year. This total is primarily derived from my Apple free cash flow projection ($70B per year) minus cash dividend expense ($15B per year). Over time, Apple's buyback pace can certainly increase to remain in line with free cash flow growth. The reverse is true as well - a slowdown in free cash flow may result in less buyback.
These estimates assume that Apple management continues to view share buyback as attractive at the current share price. That decision will ultimately be based on management's estimate of Apple's intrinsic value. Based on Apple's most recent buyback activity, management thinks Apple's intrinsic value is higher than $115 per share.
In January, a total of 15 daily updates containing 45 stories were published. Those 45 stories have been rearranged into the following categories:
Earnings / Financials
My Apple 1Q21 Estimates, Wall Street’s Expectations, The Apple Number to Watch (My Apple 1Q21 earnings preview)
Apple Earnings, The Most Important Apple Number, Apple Remains Misunderstood (My Apple 1Q21 earnings review)
Product Strategy
Business Strategy
Management / Leadership
Apple Peers and Competitors
Industry Analysis
Thursday Q&A (The following questions were submitted by Above Avalon members.)
Doesn’t Peloton make more sense as a health acquisition target for Google than Fitbit?
Are you still expecting double-digit iPhone unit sales growth in 2021?
What do you make of the rumors that Apple will remove the Touch Bar from new MacBook Pros?
What do you make of IDC and Gartner projecting huge growth numbers for Mac over the holidays?
All of the following stories are accessible to members via the Daily Updates archive. Access to the archive is a benefit attached to membership. For new members, information about accessing the archive will be sent to you after going through the signup process.
The daily updates are also available via a private podcast called Above Avalon Daily. In January, 14 podcast episodes were recorded for a total of 200 minutes of audio. The daily podcast is available as an add-on that can be attached to an Above Avalon membership. More information on the podcast is available here. All prior episodes will appear in your podcast player after you sign up for the Above Avalon Daily podcast.
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 178: Welcome to 2021
Episode 178 is dedicated to discussing Apple’s 2020 and where the company finds itself as we enter 2021. The episode goes over the first Above Avalon year in review that was published for 2020. Neil discusses his five favorite Above Avalon weekly articles from 2020 and the sub themes that were found in the 196 daily updates published in 2020.
To listen to episode 178, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
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Above Avalon Membership Turns Five Years Old
Above Avalon membership was launched five years ago this week. I am happy to report Above Avalon continues to thrive with a sustainable business model based solely on paid memberships.
Those who became Above Avalon members on May 13th, 2015 will enter their sixth year of membership tomorrow. A big thank you goes out to these early adopters who have played a pivotal role in financially-supporting Above Avalon from the literal beginning.
Reflection
Above Avalon membership’s fifth anniversary is a good time to reflect on milestones, challenges, and successes.
While membership-supported websites have grown in popularity over the past five years, Above Avalon remains on the forefront of testing just how niche a site can be and still thrive. By focusing on Apple and its ecosystem, Above Avalon is an example of how sustainability can be reached by dedicating all resources to covering one topic (company).
Since Apple doesn’t operate in a vacuum, an “Apple focus” includes analysis of other companies including, but not limited to Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Spotify, Netflix, Disney, Fitbit, and Sonos. In addition, industries that Apple competes in receive my attention. This ends up being my secret sauce for covering Apple - start with a company focus and then move outward to cover an entire industry while keeping Apple at the central point. This is the opposite of what is typically done as many start with an industry focus and then analyze specific companies.
It’s never been easier to get a paid membership site off the ground, which means it’s never been harder to find success. Start-ups focused on handling much of the back end needed for paid membership sites have reduced the barriers that traditionally prevented writers, journalists, analysts, podcasters, and videographers from monetizing audiences. This has increased competition as everyone is ultimately fighting for people’s attention. However, outsourcing the back end ends up being the simple part. Based on my experience over the past five years, the technical details of starting a membership site (creating a website / finding a payment and membership system / managing a mass email - all of which I built piece by piece myself instead of relying on a one-stop shop) pales in comparison to the time and effort spent on offering analysis and perspective on a daily basis. Your perspective is ultimately what people will be paying for, and there isn’t any outsourcing of that critical ingredient.
Successes and Challenges
The “secrets” to success with paid membership sites are multifaceted. What has or hasn’t worked for me may or may not apply to others. With that said, here are my keys to success.
Keys to Success
Focus. As most entrepreneurs who have started businesses can attest to, a constant stream of opportunities arise along the way. These opportunities take the form of ideas such as “maybe should I do this" or “that would be an interesting feature." However, saying “yes” too much will result in dilution of both one’s time and effort. Said another way, being able to retain focus by saying “no” more often than “yes” has been one of my primary keys to success. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership hasn’t changed in five years: four daily updates per week (each having about 2,000 words and covering three stories). To date, approximately 1,000 daily updates have been published.
Sustainability. It’s an interesting phenomenon but success brings on more success in this industry, and it all has to do with consistency. Above Avalon members have come to expect an exclusive daily email in their inboxes, and that is exactly what they get on a daily basis week after week, month after month, and year after year. Of those members who have chosen to step away from membership at some point over the past five years, a good percentage have returned to find that my daily discussion with members via the updates hasn’t missed a beat. Such consistency wouldn’t be possible if I spent years throwing things against the wall and constantly reinventing membership in attempt to find financial sustainability.
Membership quality. Every paid membership site must weigh the relationship between pricing and membership growth. Many news sites that have recently entered the realm of paid subscriptions are pivoting to chasing subscriber growth with drastic promotional offers and unsustainably low monthly pricing. Such a strategy doesn’t have many paths for success. With Above Avalon, I made the decision to focus on long-term, high-quality membership relationships. This has resulted not only in reduced churn (a good thing), but also continued subscriber growth as my priorities have allowed me to remain focused on adding value to membership (versus trying to boost subscriber numbers). The end result is membership that offers more value than its cost with these two variables not being anywhere close to each other.
Strive to be the best. One of the loudest criticisms surrounding paid subscription sites is that people are experiencing subscription fatigue. There is truth found with the statement. However, there ends up being much more going on behind the scenes that is rarely mentioned. There is no such thing as an “average” subscriber or subscription load. The top three subscription sites for one person will likely be different from the top three sites for someone else. To succeed, a paid membership site doesn’t have to earn a spot on everyone’s top three list. Instead, the site has to resonate with only a “few” people. This involves embracing a “be the best” mantra that entails making sure you are at the top of your game in your respective beat. After five years, I am confident in saying that this thinking has played a role in Above Avalon membership success.
There are variety of challenges found with paid membership business models, especially for one-person shops. Here have been my largest challenges:
Challenges
Exposure. While those who work at massive media outlets with teams numbering in the hundreds or even thousands have built-in amplification apparatuses for sites like Twitter (where everyone retweets each other’s articles), Above Avalon has to fight for exposure. At times this can be challenging, especially given my niche focus. I depend primarily on word of mouth for new Above Avalon weekly article readers and podcast listeners. Those two products remain my primary funnels for member acquisition. This is why having Above Avalon readers, listeners, and members (and there may be overlap among those three groups) share articles, podcasts, and daily update links is highly appreciated.
Workload. Simply put, I work a lot, to the point of being embarrassed some days by how long a daily update took to write (up to 12 hours). However, I’m happy to say that every update that I’ve published to date has met my publication standards. A consequence of this reality has been scaling back on the number of articles and podcast episodes that are published as there is only so much time in a day. Instead of rushing ideas out via shorter pieces or rushed podcast episodes, I decided to simply publish and record less often and instead dedicate the vast majority of time to Above Avalon members. My estimate is that 90% of my time in any given month is dedicated to membership with the remaining 10% going to weekly articles and podcasts (which are accessible to everyone).
Hesitation. As many artists can attest to, there is a difference between creating something with the expectation that people may or may not ever see it and creating something knowing that it will be seen. As Above Avalon readership has grown over the years, I’ve struggled at times with hesitation when hashing out certain ideas or theories. A daily update format ends up alleviating some of this hesitation as I end up talking with people who are likely to be more aware of my theories and perspective.
Other Items:
Reading habits. One debate that continues to be waged online is over people’s changing reading habits and the trend of people writing shorter pieces. For example, it has been said that blog posts are replacing books while tweets are replacing blog posts. My honest opinion of this is that it’s hogwash. Having tried my hand at tweet storms for a period, there is no question that shorter snippets of text composed in a style meant to grab one’s attention can lead to more Twitter followers, retweets, and likes. Why else would people publish tweet storms? However, the tweets comprising such storms are forgotten within a few hours and to be frank, lack depth. Meanwhile, I can easily recall certain blog posts and books that I read years ago. That isn’t a coincidence or just a result of blog posts and books being longer. Instead, writing is a powerful art that shouldn’t be manipulated just to chase social media engagement. The trend of shortening blog posts into what is just a series tweets is ultimately a growth hack.
Viability. Is it possible for other “Above Avalons” to exist (one or two-person shops focused on companies other than Apple)? Sure. The more important question comes down to how long it will take someone to find an audience. For example, if someone wants to dedicate his or her career to covering Coca-Cola, there is no question 1,000 to 10,000 people in the world would be interested in paying for top-notch analysis and perspective on the company. However, can someone find those 1,000+ people within a reasonable time period before the groceries and other household bills take over? That’s much less clear. As for covering other popular companies like Amazon and Tesla, my theory is that a company needs to have a defined and storied culture in order for an outside observer to properly analyze the company. Covering Tesla in the Above Avalon style ultimately comes down to analyzing Elon Musk, and that is an entirely different job. Meanwhile, covering Amazon presents its own challenges as the company is all about throwing things against the wall and seeing what sticks. With Apple, there is a decades-long track record of a corporate culture and mission that ultimately makes it possible to analyze the company’s strategy, actions, and future.
Gratitude
In the blog post announcing Above Avalon membership back in 2015, I began with the following:
“Above Avalon will be 100 percent supported by its readers, and I'm very excited about that model. I am confident this will assure that Above Avalon will continue to serve as a vibrant, independent source of unique perspective on Apple for a very long time.”
While I had a good hunch that the model was going to work, I ultimately had no way of knowing for sure. Over the subsequent days, weeks, months, and then years, I passed certain thresholds like the point of first reaching financial sustainability or the time that the first annual memberships came up for renew. Those milestones ended up being validation markers more than anything else - signs that I was on to something.
This fifth-year anniversary feels different in comparison to those previous milestones. Instead of seeking validation, it’s a time for being grateful by taking a moment to think about and recognize those who have helped Above Avalon get to this point.
At the end of every Above Avalon podcast episode, I usually say a variation of “I am proud to say that Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.” That pride is born out of a gratefulness that there are people out there who allow me to share my perspective on the world.
To all Above Avalon members: Thank you.
Here’s to a great first five years and to many more.
Listen to the corresponding Above Avalon podcast episode for this article here.