Above Avalon Podcast Episode 188: Apple Closed Its M&A Wallet
(Episode 188 was published on November 20th.)
While going through Apple’s recently-filed 10-K for FY2021, one number jumped out at me. It wasn’t the record iPhone sales, strong margins, or phenomenal free cash flow. Instead, it was the lack of cash spent on M&A. In episode 188, we discuss the key takeaway found with Apple spending just $33 million on business acquisitions (M&A) in FY2021. The discussion includes Neil’s thinking as to what may be behind the multi-year low for M&A and an overview of Apple’s M&A strategy.
To listen to episode 188, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 186: The iPhone 13 Has Arrived
Last week, Apple hosted a virtual event where it unveiled annual updates to the iPhone and Apple Watch. Updates to the iPad line and Fitness+ were also announced. Shortly after the event, Neil received an iPhone 13 Pro to try out. In episode 186, Neil discusses the iPhone 13 Pro in a way to add context to the broader iPhone business. The episode includes Neil’s initial impressions from using the iPhone 13 Pro.
To listen to episode 186, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 184: Let's Talk WWDC 2021
In episode 184, Neil discusses the big themes found with this year’s WWDC. The episode then takes a deep dive into watchOS direction and what Neil sees as missed opportunities for unleashing more of Apple Watch’s potential.
To listen to episode 184, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 180: 100 Million Wrists
According to Neil’s estimate, 100 million people now wear an Apple Watch. This means that approximately 10% of iPhone users wear an Apple Watch. In episode 180, Neil discusses these installed base and adoption figures as part of a larger discussion regarding Apple Watch’s sales momentum, growth potential, and roles in Apple’s ecosystem
To listen to episode 180, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 179: Winning the Buyback Debate
After years of criticism, doubt, and questions surrounding Apple’s share buyback program, we are at a point where we can say with confidence that the buyback debate has ended and Apple was declared the winner. In episode 179, Neil goes over how the buyback debate began and why so many people underestimated Apple’s ability to both buy back shares and invest in its future at the same time.
To listen to episode 179, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 178: Welcome to 2021
Episode 178 is dedicated to discussing Apple’s 2020 and where the company finds itself as we enter 2021. The episode goes over the first Above Avalon year in review that was published for 2020. Neil discusses his five favorite Above Avalon weekly articles from 2020 and the sub themes that were found in the 196 daily updates published in 2020.
To listen to episode 178, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 177: The Rise of the Small Display
While the pandemic is pushing people to embrace larger displays like iPads and Macs, the momentum found with smaller displays is still flying under the radar. In episode 177, Neil discusses how analysis of Apple device display size popularity can be used to gain insight into Apple’s ecosystem and quest to make technology more personal.
To listen to episode 177, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 176: The Mac Earned a Diploma
The Mac is seeing momentum by being true to itself instead of trying to be something that it’s not. With a transition to Apple Silicon, the product category is now benefiting from lessons Apple learned from more popular devices aimed at the mass market. As the Above Avalon podcast enters its seventh season, episode 176 is dedicated to discussing the Mac’s Apple Silicon and what may come next for the Mac. Additional topics include the Apple Silicon transition being akin to a graduation for the Mac, the Apple Innovation Feedback Loop, and overlap between the iPad Pro and Mac portables.
To listen to episode 176, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 174: Apple Watch Is a Runaway Train
While the tech press spent years infatuated with stationary smart speakers and the idea of voice-only interfaces, it was the Apple Watch and utility on the wrist that ushered in a new paradigm shift in computing. In episode 174, Neil discusses how Apple Watch momentum is building. The product category resembles a runaway train as no company is in a position to slow it down. Additional topics include the stationary smart speaker mirage, Neil’s Apple Watch installed base estimates, how Apple Watch derives its momentum, and Apple’s health platform.
To listen to episode 174, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 173: Let's Talk App Store
As Apple pulls away from the competition, the App Store is considered the best (and last) chance for competitors to reshape the mobile industry to their liking. In episode 173, Neil examines how competitors are waging a guerrilla war against Apple and the App Store. The discussion then turns to Neil unveiling a new podcast called Above Avalon Daily.
To listen to episode 173, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
Introducing the Above Avalon Daily Podcast
Over the past five years, 2,000-word written daily updates have served as the cornerstone of Above Avalon membership. With more than 1,000 updates published to date (the archive is found here), the emails have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple.
In an effort to make it easier to consume the daily updates in new and different ways, I am excited to announce a new daily podcast called Above Avalon Daily.
Designed as an add-on feature that can be attached to an existing membership, Above Avalon Daily allows written daily updates to be accessible beyond screens. Members now have the ability to consume the daily updates around the house, on a walk, or in the car.
Podcasting
I am a big believer in podcasts as demonstrated with 172 episodes and counting of the Above Avalon podcast produced over the past six years. Not only does the podcast medium offer a different consumption experience compared to written content, but the two supplement each other. Based on feedback over the years, many AboveAvalon.com readers also listen to the Above Avalon podcast and vice versa. My expectation is that this dynamic will now be found with written and audio versions of the Above Avalon daily updates.
Some may want to listen to Above Avalon Daily first and then read the episode’s “transcript” via the corresponding written daily update. This is especially true for various financial topics covered in the updates. Others will want to read the updates first and then listen to the updates at a later time while driving, at the gym, or doing anything that may limit screen access.
Episode Details
Above Avalon Daily episodes closely follow that day’s written update. Episodes revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
My Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
It became clear early on when creating Above Avalon Daily that one cannot simply take the written daily updates and recite or dictate them word for word. There are too many quoted passages, numbers, exhibits, charts, and data points. Accordingly, each episode includes some curation, new transitions, and commentary that help convert written daily updates into an enjoyable audio format.
Two sample episodes are found below:
Each episode is approximately 15 minutes. Earnings and event episodes will run longer. As with the written daily update schedule, there are four new podcast episodes a week, which works out to a little under 200 episodes a year.
New episodes are released after that day’s daily update is published. Since I am based in the Eastern time zone, new episodes are published in the evening time frame. This makes it possible for new episodes to be listened to first thing the following morning in most regions. New episodes will come out in the AM in Asia and Australia as well. Of course, you can listen to new episodes as soon as they are published.
How to Listen
Transistor is handling the behind-the-scenes mechanics of Above Avalon Daily, a private podcast that can be listened to with various podcast players including Apple Podcasts and Overcast (both of which work great with Above Avalon Daily).
Above Avalon Daily relies on private RSS feeds. This makes it possible for new Above Avalon Daily episodes to show up only for members who have purchased the podcast add-on.
The set-up process for listening to Above Avalon Daily is very simple:
Upon purchasing the podcast add-on, you will receive an email (from “Neil Cybart via Transistor”) that directs you to a sign-up page listing various podcast players that can be used to listen to the podcast. Open the page on an iPhone, and you will see various iOS podcast players. Open the page on a Mac, and you will see options for listening to the podcast on a Mac. A screenshot of that page is found below.
After you select your preferred podcast player, previously-published Above Avalon Daily episodes will automatically appear in your podcast feed. There are already three hours worth of daily updates available. New episodes will appear as they are published.
That’s it. There is no need to create a separate login, password, or Transistor profile. In the vast majority of cases, there is no need to even copy or paste a link or RSS feed.
Pricing and Signing Up
The Above Avalon Daily podcast is available as an add-on ($10 per month or $100 per year) that is attached to an Above Avalon membership.
If you are currently an Above Avalon member, fill out this form to get the podcast add-on. To become an Above Avalon member and purchase the podcast add-on at signup, use the following forms:
Payment is hosted and secured by MoonClerk and Stripe. Apple Pay is accepted. You will receive a confirmation email that includes a link allowing you to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
In addition to being the first podcast exclusive for members, Above Avalon Daily marks the start of members being able to customize their membership to better suit their lifestyle and background. To those members who have already become listeners, thank you for your support. To those of you considering Above Avalon Daily, I am confident you will find the podcast a valuable addition to your daily routine.
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 171: The Apple Ecosystem
Apple’s ecosystem ends up being about more than just a collection of devices or services. Apple has been quietly building something much larger, and it’s still flying under the radar. In episode 171, Neil examines what Apple’s ecosystem derives its power from and why loyalty and satisfaction rates increase as customers move deeper in the Apple ecosystem. Additional topics include The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products, Apple as a design company, how non-Apple hardware can serve as a Trojan horse for Apple, and how Apple’s ecosystem can evolve.
To listen to episode 171, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 169: The Business of Predicting Turns
Financial market commentators have been stumped by the stock market’s resiliency during the pandemic. Maybe they shouldn't be so surprised. In episode 169, Neil examines the question of whether or not Wall Street tried to predict the pandemic’s turn without actually knowing what such a turn would look like. Additional topics include two truths when it comes to how Wall Street functions, the various predictions for Apple, lessons found with Wall Street’s nature of predicting turns, and how predicting turns ends up being about predicting when calmness will enter and leave the market.
To listen to episode 169, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 168: The Paid Membership Model
This past week marked the fifth anniversary of Neil launching Above Avalon membership. Above Avalon continues to thrive with a sustainable business model based solely on paid memberships. In episode 168, Neil gives a behind-the-scenes look at Above Avalon’s business model. Additional topics include: Above Avalon’s history, Neil’s “secrets” to success, and his largest challenges found with a paid membership model.
To listen to episode 168, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 165: The iPad's First Decade
There was no shortage of writers, pundits, and industry analysts using the iPad’s 10th anniversary las month to give eulogies for the product in terms of its inability to be revolutionary, grab momentum, or even just meet expectations. In episode 165, Neil discusses his perspective on the iPad’s first decade and why we shouldn’t feel bad for the iPad. Additional topics include a different way of looking at the iPad unveiling in 2010, how the iPad foreshadowed iPhone success, how Apple pivoted the iPad, the iPad’s primary problem today, and how the iPad’s value is found in letting the product be itself.
To listen to episode 165, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 163: A Revolution on the Wrist
In addition to being a sales success, the Apple Watch has ushered in a paradigm shift in computing. In episode 163, Neil discusses how the Apple Watch is fundamentally changing the way we use technology. Additional topics include paradigm shifts, Apple Watch sales, Apple’s new Apple Watch Connected initiative, stationary smart speakers as extensions of existing products, and Neil’s new framework for recognizing paradigm shifts in computing.
To listen to episode 163, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 161: Apple's Spectacular Year on Wall Street
Something has clearly changed when it comes to the way Wall Street is treating AAPL. For the first time with Tim Cook as CEO, Apple shares are trading at a premium to the overall market. In episode 161, Neil discusses how changing behavior as it relates to passive versus active investing may be creating a type of perfect storm for AAPL shares. Additional discussion topics include Apple’s valuation, free cash flow, momentum shifting to passive investing, and Warren Buffett.
To listen to episode 161, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 160: Let's Talk "Apple Tax"
Apple’s ability to grab monopoly-like share of industry profits isn’t a result of there being an Apple Tax. Rather, it's a byproduct of Apple following a design-led product strategy that ultimately marginalizes industries. In episode 160, Neil discusses the theory behind the “Apple Tax,” Apple’s pricing strategy, and why the days of there being an Apple Tax ended years ago. Additional topics include Apple gross margin trends, two major implications associated with Apple’s pricing strategy, and a few narrative violations found with Apple’s revenue and gross profit optimization playbook.
To listen to episode 160, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 159: AirPods as a Platform
Apple is turning AirPods into a platform for what comes after the App Store. AirPods will augment our environment by pushing intelligent sound. In the first episode of Season 6, Neil goes over how AirPods have evolved from an iPhone accessory into the early stages of a platform well positioned to reshape the current app paradigm for the wearables era. Additional topics include the AirPods Pro launch, AirPods Pro initial impressions, AirPods sales, examples of AirPods as a platform, and the three sources from which AirPods will derive its platform power.
To listen to episode 159, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 158: Forced to Sell
How did Fitbit go from being considered the wearables leader to viewing a $2.1B acquisition as its best hope for shareholders to recoup any value? What led Fitbit to run out of options as an independent company? In episode 158, Neil discusses how Apple Watch forced Fitbit to sell itself. Additional topics include Google’s acquisition offer for Fitbit, how Apple Watch redefined the wrist wearables industry, and the most damning evidence of Fitbit’s demise.
To listen to episode 158, go here.
The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here.