Neil Cybart 10/31/22 Neil Cybart 10/31/22

Inside Apple’s Record Mac Quarter, What’s Going On With iPad Sales?, Charting Apple’s Ecosystem Growth (Daily Update)

In today's update, we will continue our Apple 4Q22 earnings review with a few granular takeaways. In particular, we look beyond the Mac and iPad numbers. Tomorrow, our focus will be geared toward everything that was discussed on management's earnings call.

Inside Apple’s Record Mac Quarter

Apple reported $11.5B of Mac revenue in 4Q22. It was a quarterly record that exceeded my estimate by a significant $1.5B. Prior to 4Q22, the previous Mac revenue record was $10.9B (in 1Q22).

Diving deeper into 4Q22 Mac results, things become more complicated. We may be seeing something equivalent to a near-term plateau, or growth air pocket, for Mac sales.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.

(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

Neil Cybart 10/25/22 Neil Cybart 10/25/22

Previewing Apple’s 4Q22 Earnings, My Apple 4Q22 Estimates, Apple Raises Apple Music and Apple TV+ Pricing (Daily Update)

Happy Tuesday.

We will go over my updated Apple earnings model tomorrow. It's not quite ready for publication. As a reminder, with Apple reporting earnings on Thursday, here is the daily update schedule for the rest of the week:

Wednesday: Regular update
Thursday: No update
Friday: Special Friday update dedicated to reviewing Apple earnings

Previewing Apple’s 4Q22 Earnings

My expectation is for Apple to report OK results on Thursday. While FX, inflation, and ongoing supply chain issues will negatively impact numbers, Apple should be able to comfortably exceed the all-time FY4Q revenue record ($83B is the current record).

FY4Q presents a few challenges for Apple financial modeling and earnings analysis as results reflect demand and supply trends 1) leading up to the critical September product launches and 2) a portion of the product launches themselves. For Apple, those two periods can end up representing distinct demand environments.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here . An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.