Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple 4Q24 Earnings Review: A Few Apple Services Surprises

Hello everyone.

For today’s update, we will address another Apple question that has generated buzz within financial circles: How is Apple’s financial performance being impacted by Services? There are a few surprises to uncover.

Let’s jump right in.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

An audio version of the newsletter is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-ons.

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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Reviewing Apple’s 4Q24: What Is Apple’s “Real” Growth Rate?

Hello everyone.

Welcome to a new week. Much of our focus this week will be given to reviewing Apple’s earnings. As we discussed last Friday, even though results were close to my estimates, there is value found in drilling down into some of the numbers and specific business lines.

In addition to picking apart Apple’s earnings conference call, we will try something a little bit different this earnings review cycle by addressing a few Apple questions that have generated buzz within financial circles. One such topic will drive today’s discussion: Apple’s growth rate.

Things are a bit crazy here in the U.S. with the presidential election taking place today. Depending on when a winner is called, we will interrupt our earnings review to go over my thoughts on potential Apple impacts.

Let’s jump in.


Reviewing Apple’s 4Q24: What Is Apple’s “Real” Growth Rate?

Last Thursday, Apple reported $94.9B of revenue for 4Q24. The figure represented 6.1% growth. My expectation was that Apple would slightly beat its guidance commentary (i.e. growth was said to be close to 4.9%).

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

An audio version of the newsletter is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-ons.

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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

My Granular Estimates for Apple 3Q24 Earnings

We conclude my Apple 3Q24 earnings preview. Today’s discussion goes over my granular estimates for Apple’s 3Q24. We also look at my revised 4Q24 estimates heading into Thursday and a quick cheatsheet for Apple’s earnings release.

One quick item before we get to the second half of my Apple 3Q24 earnings preview.

Financial Models Add-on. To those members with the Financial Models add-on, my iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch installed base models will be updated following Apple’s earnings. As a reminder, you can access the models at any time by logging into your Above Avalon membership account here and going to the Digital Package tab (shown below). My updated earnings model will be found in the same location (expect one to be posted in the AM ET tomorrow).
 

 
 
 
 

The Financial Models add-on is designed to be a perfect companion for AAPL investors wanting to take a deep dive into Apple’s financials as well as Apple competitors and suppliers needing to better understand marketplace dynamics. For pricing information and to purchase the add-on, check out this page.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)


Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

An audio version of the newsletter is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-ons.

Read More