Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Is in a League of Its Own

During Apple’s “Peek Performance” event held last month, the company announced not only a brand new Mac category with the Mac Studio, but also iPhone SE and iPad Air updates that will be well-received in the marketplace. Management fit so much into its 57-minute event, Apple’s entry into live sports was given just 65 seconds.

The primary takeaway from Apple’s event wasn’t found with any particular product. Instead, it was the sheer breadth of product unveilings that caught my attention. Over the past 18 months, Apple has held seven jam-packed product unveilings that have included a collection of new hardware, software, and services. Apple’s peers would be thrilled to hold just one of these presentations every year or two. There is no other company in the same league as Apple when it comes to maintaining and updating such a wide and comprehensive ecosystem of devices and services. The pace of Apple’s new product unveilings has played a role in the company pulling away from the competition.

Ecosystem Strength

It's easy to look at Apple’s quarterly earnings and reach conclusions about the company’s ecosystem strength. Apple’s financials, although strong, don’t tell the full story. With nearly 80% of Apple’s revenue attributable to hardware, the company’s financials remain heavily influenced by upgrading trends. Revenue, operating income, and cash flow metrics undersell how Apple is performing in the marketplace from a new user perspective.

The following new user estimates are obtained by combining Apple management commentary with my own product unit sales assumptions: 

To get to the heart of what Apple is doing and how the company is executing so well, we have to go back to 2017 and 2018. Apple began to follow a new strategy that amounted to pushing all of its product category forward at the same time. Previously, Apple had been following a product strategy that can be thought of as a pull system. The company was most aggressive with the products capable of making technology more relevant and personal.

One way of conceptualizing this strategy is to think of Apple product categories being attached to a rope in order of which makes technology more personal via new workflows and processes for getting work done. As Apple management pulled on the rope, the Apple Watch and iPhone received much of the attention while the Mac increasingly resembled dead weight. Similarly, the iPad had hit a rough patch.

Apple is now utilizing a push system in which every major product category is being pushed forward simultaneously. As a result, the iPad, and in particular the Mac, has received more priority. We have also since seen Apple become more aggressive with expanding the number of SKUs available and giving consumers more price and feature options.

At the core of Apple’s product strategy shift was a doubling down on autonomy within its product development process. The Apple machine is operating at such speed and scale, it’s not realistic to think one person can control or run the machine. Apple wouldn’t be able to push its entire product line forward simultaneously if every decision had to go through one gatekeeper. Instead, the Apple machine was designed to take on a certain level of autonomy in order to instill Apple’s values in all employees. Designers of various disciplines have been given greater say over the user experience.

Floundering Competition

As product strategy changes were underway within Apple, the competition began to flounder. A growing number of bad product bets were placed, peaking with the ultimate misdirection in tech of the past decade: voice computing and the stationary smart speaker mirage. The subsequent embrace of stationary screens positioned on kitchen countertops has seen limited adoption. Foldable smartphone sales have not been impressive. Apple competitors are now struggling to capture consumers’ attention and money with routine annual smartphone updates. 

We are at the point when tough questions have to be asked about Apple’s competition, or lack thereof. What company can realistically give Apple a run for its money? The number of paid subscriptions across Apple’s platform is increasing by 170 million per year. Google wants to compete in some hardware verticals that Apple plays in, but it’s fair to question Google management’s commitment. At times, their heart just doesn’t seem in it. Amazon and Microsoft have stronger motivations to do well in hardware, but their lack of design thinking is hard to miss. Meta would win the award for strongest public commitment to hardware, but the company’s culture and heritage don’t seem to mesh well with what it takes to do well in hardware. Snap, Spotify, Sonos, and the long list of smaller companies dabbling in hardware all lack the ecosystems to truly go up against Apple toe to toe.

When thinking of competition outside the U.S., a growing number of consumers are looking for entry points into comprehensive (and premium) ecosystems. Apple is selling both the all-around best smartphone in the market and tools and services designed to live both below and above the smartphone. Android switching rates are increasing while Apple entices hundreds of millions of iPhone-only users to move deeper into the ecosystem.

A risk that any company in Apple’s position will face is complacency. With most of its product categories, Apple’s largest competitor ends up being itself. The fact that Apple’s ecosystem updates are accelerating rather than declining as the competition breaks apart is a potential sign of Apple decoupling itself from the “competition drives us” mantra that is found in Silicon Valley. There is a deeper drive within Apple – a feeling that if Apple doesn’t create it, no one else will - that is driving teams forward. 

Check out the daily update from April 5th for additional discussion on this topic.

Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. The updates, which have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple, provide timely analysis of news impacting Apple and its competitors. Neil also publishes exclusive reports on Apple business, product, and financial strategy. The daily updates and reports are available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.

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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Is Pulling Away From the Competition

For the second year in a row, Apple held a developers conference that should frighten its competitors. Relying on a nearly maniacal obsession with the user experience, Apple is removing oxygen from every market that it plays in. At the same time, the tech landscape is riddled with increasingly bad bets, indifference, and a lack of vision. Apple is pulling away from the competition to a degree that we haven’t ever seen before. Given how we are just now entering the wearables era, implications of this shift will be measured in the coming decades, not years.

WWDC 2020

It speaks volumes that Apple held its strongest WWDC in years during the middle of a pandemic while two of its largest competitors, Google and Facebook, decided to skip their annual developers conferences. Just a few years ago, fortunes were reversed. Apple was coming under fire for WWDCs that appeared to be more reactionary to Google, Facebook, and Samsung. Apple was also struggling to contain growing unrest among its pro users who were tempted by Microsoft Surface hardware. 

What changed?

The last two WWDCs stood out for two reasons: 

A revised Apple product strategy. A few years ago, Apple was most aggressive with products capable of making technology more relevant and personal (iPhone and Apple Watch). As shown in Exhibit 1, in the pull strategy, the Apple Watch and iPhone were Apple’s clear priorities while the iPad, Mac portables, and Mac desktops ended up facing a battle for management attention as if they were located at the end of the rope that was Apple management was pulling.

Apple changed from a “pull” strategy in which some products like the iPad and Mac seemed to be having a hard time keeping up to a push strategy characterized by every major product category moving forward simultaneously. This shift appears to have been born in 2017, which would explain why we are still seeing the initial fruit of the effort. The iPad and Mac product categories have benefited the most from this revised “push” product strategy with more frequent and noteworthy updates. 

Exhibit 1: Apple’s Changing Product Strategy

Apple has doubled down on its unique interpretation of innovation. During his opening remarks at the iPhone and Apple Watch event last September, Tim Cook said that Apple sells tools containing "[i]nnovations that enrich people's lives to help them learn, create, work, play, share, and stay healthy." Instead of defining innovation as either being first or doing something different, Apple looks at innovation as something that improves customers’ lives. A major consequence of this has been software and hardware releases that have prioritized feature quality over quantity. This year’s WWDC came in a full 20% shorter than previous keynotes. While having a digital format helped cut down on the timing due to quicker transitions, no clapping etc., there were also fewer new features announced. However, the features that were announced contained more significance when it comes to pushing the user experience forward. 

A Stronger Apple

Unfortunately for Apple competitors, the combination of a revised product strategy and unique definition of innovation didn’t just make for strong WWDC keynotes. Consumers are noticing and wanting what Apple is selling. Consider the following trends:  

All of the preceding items amount to an Apple ecosystem gaining momentum. A different way of highlighting Apple’s growing ecosystem over the past 10 years is to look at the number of people using at least one Apple device. As shown in Exhibit 2, Apple’s installed base recently surpassed a billion users. 

Exhibit 2: Apple Installed Base (Number of Users)

While new user growth rates have slowed, Apple is still bringing tens of millions of users into the fold. Due to Apple’s views regarding innovation and its focus on the user experience, once someone enters the Apple ecosystem, odds are good that customer will remain in the ecosystem. 

This is why one subtheme from last week’s WWDC keynote flew under the radar. (My complete WWDC 2020 review is available here for Above Avalon members.) It’s not just about Apple pushing multiple product categories forward at the same time. Instead, it’s about adding cohesiveness and commonality between product categories. Apple is making it easier for people to buy multiple Apple devices. As users move deeper into the Apple ecosystem, satisfaction and loyalty rates stand to go even higher. The end result is that Apple’s billion users aren’t just any billion users. Instead, they are a billion users less likely to use non-Apple devices and services going forward. For the competition, this is a highly concerning development. 

More worrying for competitors, Apple is still in the early stages of bringing its users deeper into the ecosystem. According to my estimate, approximately 50% of Apple users still own just one Apple device: an iPhone. This group serves as a prime market for products like the iPad, Apple Watch, AirPods, and various Apple services. In a few years, that percentage may decline to something more like 30%. Such a development will remove much of the remaining oxygen from the markets Apple plays in.

 Competition Is Weakening 

While Apple sails forward with a strengthening ecosystem made possible by a clear product vision and a functioning organizational structure that prioritizes design (i.e. the user experience), the competition is rudderless. 

Apple competitors have been striking out with one bad product bet after another. Few have long-term vision as to where computing is headed. Consider the following events, developments, and observations. By no means is this an inclusive list. 

  • Samsung remains rudderless from a product vision perspective. With no clear direction as to where to go, the company aimlessly launches new products and features for no other reason than to say they are first. The strategy is no different than throwing things against the wall and hoping something sticks. Even worse, the products and features that Samsung is announcing aren’t even ready for public usage. 

  • Google continues to prioritize technology over design. While new software features may seem compelling on paper, the lack of attention given to the user experience quickly becomes apparent. It has also become difficult to miss the growing enthusiasm gap between Android and iOS. On the hardware front, Google is struggling to match such efforts with its ambient computing future (which doesn’t make much sense to me). 

  • Amazon’s massive bet on voice with Alexa and Echo was the wrong one. The stationary smart speaker space was a mirage. Amazon should have instead bet on wearables with voice as a user input. However, the company doesn’t have the corporate culture to excel with computers worn on the body. 

  • Microsoft appears to be running into growing trouble with the consumer when it comes to Surface. What had been a genuine chance to rip into the iPad and Mac stronghold due to growing user unrest looks to have been successfully crushed by Apple. Microsoft Surface revenue is increasingly being driven by commercial clients (i.e. Microsoft is taking share from its OEMs rather than Apple).

  • Facebook ended up placing the wrong social bet. Instead of going after our closest social network, Facebook evolved to offer a curated version of the web via the News Feed. The company’s pivot back to a privacy-focused social platform built around messaging emphasizes this wrong bet. A message sent through Apple’s Messages is a message not sent through a Facebook property. 

  • Snap, the company considered to have the best odds of competing with Apple on AR, botched its first major foray into AR hardware with Spectacles. The company has backed itself in a corner by management’s refusal, and then failure, to appeal to older demographics. This will serve as a headwind for mass market AR successes. 

  • Spotify was not able to prevent Apple Music from gaining critical mass despite Apple Music not having a free tier. The same is now taking place with Netflix, which is unable to stop new entrants into paid video streaming from gaining traction. This ends up diffusing near universal praise in the press for first movers. 

For an industry that was expected to put Apple in its place, that sure is a lot of fails, flops, and disappointments. When looking outside the U.S., the overall picture isn’t dramatically different. While some companies still have pockets of strength where Apple is not a major player, in geographies Apple is playing in, the company continues to see growing ecosystem momentum while the competition flounders. The number of paid subscriptions being run through Apple’s platform points to increased services and app adoption outside the U.S.

The never-ending tales of Apple being crushed by the local competition in China have been met with Apple seeing existing users move deeper into the ecosystem as measured by App Store, iPad, and wearables momentum. Huawei’s struggles in Europe appear to be benefiting Apple at the premium end of the market.

Changing Narrative

If there was still doubt about Apple’s momentum in the marketplace, one doesn’t need to look any further than the dramatic change in narrative facing Apple in the press. 

For years, Apple was positioned as one iPhone update away from implosion. Low market and sales share were paraded around as signs of an incompetent product strategy. Simply put, Apple was framed as being weak and vulnerable, dependent on revenue sources that could disappear overnight due to consumers fleeing to the competition. 

The narrative has completely shifted. The press is now infatuated with Apple’s power, its ironclad grip over the App Store, and the idea that Apple users are stuck or imprisoned in a massive walled garden where things like iMessage, Apple Watches, and AirPods force people to remain within Apple’s walls. Government regulators are viewed as the only entity capable of protecting Apple users from Apple.

If competitors actually believe this narrative, they are setting themselves for more failure. Thinking that Apple users are somehow being forced against their will to buy products like Apple Watches and AirPods is nothing more than looking for someone to blame for market failures when the problem is found internally with a bad vision, inadequate corporate culture, and lack of understanding as to what makes Apple unique. 

Risks

On a list of risk factors facing Apple, greater regulation is far from the top. The same can be said about things like App Store policies and employee retention. While these items make for juicy headlines capable of grabbing people’s attention, they won’t play a major role in Apple’s future. Instead, Apple is where it is today by saying “no” more than “yes.” By remaining focused on making technology more personal, which is inherently about using a design-led culture to push the user experience, Apple is able to develop a dynamic, yet nimble, ecosystem of tools that people are willing to pay for. lf it were to lose focus, Apple would move that much closer to its competitors. 

Apple ends up being its toughest competitor as it releases products that surpass the previous version. This is where betting on the user experience and taking a unique stance on innovation is critical. 

Next Ten Years

When the iPhone was unveiled in 2007, Steve Jobs claimed that Apple had a five-year head start against the competition. He ended up being mostly right. By 2012, Samsung and Google were shipping credible iPhone alternatives, thanks partially to ruthless copying that led to time in the courtroom.

With wearables, my thinking has been that Apple has a lead that is closer to 10 years. This estimate reflects not just software or hardware advantages, but also the byproduct of Apple controlling both items and its resulting achievements with custom silicon. 

As time passes, Apple has been facing less competition in wearables. This is remarkable considering how Apple Watch has already ushered in the next paradigm shift in computing. We are seeing the future today. Yet most companies either don’t see it or even worse, see it but are unable to respond. 

Giving Apple a 10-year head start against the competition with wearables may end up giving too much credit to the competition. Excelling in wearables requires a corporate culture, product development process, and business model that few companies other than Apple possess. In many ways, Apple was built to excel in wearables. Apple should probably get used to being its own toughest competitor.  

Listen to the corresponding Above Avalon podcast episode for this article here.

Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.

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