Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple’s Paid Subscriptions Growth Reaccelerates, The Case for Higher Apple Gross Margins

Hello everyone.

We will conclude our Apple earnings review by looking at Apple’s paid subscriptions growth and gross margins. There are a few follow-ups that we have not covered yet. The discussion includes Neil’s thoughts on why Apple’s gross margins still have room to move higher.

Let’s jump right in.


Apple’s Paid Subscriptions Growth Reaccelerates

In keeping with its usual disclosure, Apple provided updated comments regarding the number of paid subscriptions across the Apple ecosystem.

Based on Apple’s commentary, here are my estimates for the number of paid subscriptions across Apple’s ecosystem (first party and third party) on a quarterly basis:

  • 1Q20: 482M paid subscriptions

  • 2Q20: 518M

  • 3Q20: 553M

  • 4Q20: 588M

  • 1Q21: 623M

  • 2Q21: 663M

  • 3Q21: 705M

  • 4Q21: 749M

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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

The "Apple Tax" Died Years Ago

Two weeks ago, Business Insider caused a stir with a video titled, “Why Apple Products Are So Expensive.” The video was part of Business Insider’s “So Expensive” series, which takes a look at why certain items are priced the way they are.

The video was troubling for the number of inaccuracies, falsehoods, and outright lies it included about Apple and its pricing strategy. According to Business Insider, Apple products are expensive because loyal users are willing to pay an “Apple Tax,” or a higher price attached to products containing an Apple logo. A closer look at Apple’s actual pricing strategy reveals a fundamentally different explanation for why Apple products are priced the way they are. The days of there being an “Apple Tax” ended years ago.

The Video

The following video was pushed out to Business Insider’s 2.3M YouTube subscribers on November 23rd, 2019. The video currently has a little more than 660,000 views.

The video included a long list of claims regarding Apple, its product pricing strategy, and the company’s overall positioning in the marketplace.

  • Apple was said to be bringing in huge profits by charging higher prices for its products. The progression of pricing from iPhone 6 to iPhone 11 ($649 to $999) and the Mac mini ($499 to $799) were used as examples of Apple charging more for basically the same product. These higher prices are said to be part of Apple’s strategy to squeeze as much profit as possible from loyal customers “unwilling to switch out of the Apple ecosystem.”

  • Apple products were said to contain components that are standardized and comparable to what is found in competing products. Accordingly, higher-priced Apple products are more expensive than products from competitors despite not including additional functionality. An iPhone’s bill of materials was positioned as a useful tool for tracking how profitable an iPhone is for Apple.

  • Apple was said to rely on “sneaky” tactics to grab additional profit from these loyal users by charging more for higher-end configurations and requiring users to buy expensive dongles, keyboards, mice, and cables.

When assessing the video’s long list of issues, the primary problem was found with how much long-standing narratives about Apple guided Business Insider’s talking points. Numbers and data were cherrypicked to support false narrative after false narrative while Business Insider ignored or brushed aside evidence that would prove its narratives wrong. For example, Apple’s downright aggressive pricing with Apple Watch and AirPods was ignored. Meanwhile, strategies that have proven to be flat out wrong, such as relying on a product’s bill of materials to figure out profitability, went unchecked.

In an effort to come off as more authoritative, Business Insider relied heavily on commentary from Mohan Sawhney, a marketing professor at Northwestern University. The problem was that Sawhney viewed Apple through a marketing prism - the company was said to be nothing more than a luxury brand selling nice-looking tech gadgets. Sawhney claimed the only reason Apple is able to extract so much profit from the industries it operates in is because people are willing to pay more for the Apple logo. There was no mention of Apple controlling much of the profit within an industry by purposely avoiding the low end of that market while also offering a wide range of devices with different amounts of technology.

Apple Tax

The theory of there being an Apple Tax has been around for more than a decade. The term was coined during the mid-2000s to refer primarily to Apple laptops (iBooks and then MacBooks). A MacBook was said to cost more money than a Windows laptop with similar specifications because of there being a premium built into the MacBook’s price. Said another way, the MacBook was more expensive than other products since it included an Apple logo.

The “Apple Tax’ phrase became a way to poke fun at MacBook users for their apparent cluelessness in paying more for a product despite cheaper alternatives being available. In recent years, the Apple Tax definition has morphed to merely refer to higher-priced Apple products like the iMac Pro and new Mac Pro.

There has always been a glaring hole in the Apple Tax narrative: Since Apple does not license its Mac operating system to OEMs, a MacBook running Apple software ends up being very different than a Windows laptop said to have similar specs. In addition, while Apple made a number of content creation applications available for free on the Mac, Windows laptops positioned as direct competitors lacked such free applications. It may be more correct to say that the Apple Tax reflected the price of Mac software instead of some kind of premium created out of thin air.

Apple’s Pricing Strategy

Apple’s pricing strategy is not based on the idea of forcing users to pay an “Apple Tax.” Instead, Apple follows a revenue and gross profit optimization strategy. Here is Apple’s CFO Luca Maestri talking about the strategy on various Apple earnings conference calls:

  • 4Q17: “We tend to think about maximizing gross margin dollars because we think that's the most important thing for investors at the end of the day. When we look at our track record over years, I think we've found a good balance between unit sales growth and gross margins and revenue, and we will continue to do that as we go forward.”

  • 2Q18: “Our primary consideration is always around maximizing gross margin dollars, and that is the approach that we take around pricing decisions.”

  • 4Q18: “[W]e make our decisions from a financial standpoint to try and optimize our revenue and our gross margin dollars.”

  • 1Q19: “It is important for us to grow gross margin dollars. And if at times we grow services that are at a level of gross margins, which is below average, as long as this is good for the customer and as long as we generate gross margin dollars we're going to be very pleased.”

  • 2Q19: “[W]hat really matters to us and what we look at -- when we look at the elasticity of these [iPhone upgrade] programs is to see the impact on our gross margin dollars.”

While “revenue and gross margin optimization” may sound like loaded terminology, the idea underlying the strategy is straightforward. Instead of Apple including a certain amount of “tax” or premium in a product’s price to maintain a specific gross margin percentage, Apple prices its products in a way that maximizes gross margin and revenue on an absolute basis. Gross margin is cost of goods subtracted from revenue.

The strategy requires Apple to come up with forecasts for how a product’s price will impact customer demand for that product. Price a product too high, and the lower unit sales (as a result of weaker demand) may more than offset the higher amount of revenue and gross margin found with each device. Price a product too low, and the higher unit sales (as a result of stronger demand) may not offset the lower amount of revenue and gross margin found with each device.

Gross Margin Data

A closer look at Apple’s gross margins demonstrates this “revenue and gross margin optimization” strategy in action. Exhibit 1 highlights Apple’s gross margin percentage going back to 2000.

Exhibit 1: Apple Gross Margin (Percent of Revenue)

As shown in Exhibit 1, Apple’s gross margin as a percent of revenue has been steady since 2013. On the surface, such stability would seem to validate Business Insider’s claim of there being some kind of price premium automatically added to Apple products - as if management determines a product’s price by adding a certain premium on top of the cost of goods sold.

However, Apple’s overall gross margin doesn’t tell the full story. There are notable shifts underway when looking at the two components that make up overall gross margin. A decline in Apple’s products (hardware) gross margin percentage is being offset by an increase in services gross margin percentage. This dynamic is seen in Exhibit 2.

Exhibit 2: Apple Gross Margin (Percent of Revenue) - Products vs. Services

In just the past two years, Apple products gross margin percentage has declined by 10% (350 basis points). That is noteworthy. This means that Apple hardware has become less profitable when looking at gross margin as a percent of revenue. The decline is due to two factors:

  1. Apple is lowering product pricing which is eating into the delta between revenue and cost of goods sold. Most of these price cuts are designed to roll back the impact from foreign exchange. However, another factor is that Apple is willing to run with lower gross margin profiles for certain products with the goal of selling more products.

  2. Apple is including more technology in its products while not increasing prices enough to maintain gross margin percentages. As with the first factor, Apple is becoming more aggressive on price in an effort to sell more products and generate more revenue and gross margin dollars.

The decline in products gross margin percentage doesn’t become apparent when looking at overall gross margin because Apple Services is offsetting the decline. Services gross margin is up a very strong 16% (870 basis points) over the past two years as services with naturally higher margins (licensing, AppleCare, paid iCloud storage) gain momentum.

While Apple’s products gross margin percentage has declined by 10% over the past two years, products gross margin dollars declined by only 2%. This tells us that Apple is willing to let products gross margin percentage decline (less profit found with each device) if it means stronger customer demand results in more units being sold. This is the epitome of Apple’s revenue and gross margin optimization strategy.

Implications

There are two major implications associated with Apple’s revenue and gross profit optimization strategy:

  1. Apple’s product portfolio has become increasingly competitive from a pricing perspective. In the case of Apple Watch and AirPods, pricing is downright aggressive compared to the competition. A $159 pair of AirPods sent shockwaves around the industry as competing products were priced in the $200 to $300 range. Even today, it’s difficult for genuine competitors to come close to AirPods pricing. A similar dynamic is found with wrist wearables as Apple Watch pricing remains highly competitive.

  2. Apple has embraced a bifurcation strategy in which product lines have been expanded to include a broader range of models and corresponding prices. This dynamic applies to most of Apple’s products including the iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and AirPods. The primary benefit of Apple becoming aggressive both at the low end and high end of the pricing spectrum is more choice for consumers. Products like the 10.2-inch iPad represent the gateway into the iOS ecosystem for millions of people each year. The MacBook Air remains the most popular Mac. The end result is that products with various margin profiles may end up offsetting each other.

Accessories

When it comes to how Apple prices various accessories like dongles, Watch bands, and iPad keyboards, the company isn’t relying on an Apple Tax. Instead, accessories by their very nature have high gross margins given that the items are sold to customers looking to personalize their experience. A similar philosophy applies to Mac memory and storage upgrades. While those upgrades are indeed profitable for Apple, the fact that Apple charges the prices they do is not a sign of Apple users being held hostage and forced to pay an Apple Tax. Instead, positioning certain items as accessories or upgrades plays a role in Apple keeping entry-level product pricing low for the mass market.

Narrative Violations

A new school of thought positions Apple as a monopoly not because it has significant market share, but because it has loyal and engaged users. The idea is that since these users would apparently face such a dreadful experience by moving outside the Apple platform, it’s as if they have no alternatives. Apple is said to be taking unfair advantage of this situation and its position as the only provider of a premium experience. A byproduct of this stance is that certain Apple actions, such as the way the App Store is managed, are viewed as uncompetitive.

There is no question that Apple has loyal, satisfied users. However, the premise that these users are in some way held captive or hostage by Apple, and therefore forced to pay high Apple prices, just doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

  • Contrary to popular opinion, a new Apple product doesn’t sell simply because it has an Apple logo. Apple users are discerning when it comes to determining what products are worth buying. We see this when it comes to upgrade rates for existing products as well as adoption trends for new products.

  • Apple’s declining products gross margin percentage is driven in part by lower iPhone profit margin percentages. This has occurred despite iPhone ASPs rising, which goes against nearly every narrative that has been put forth about higher iPhone prices.

  • The App Store is run at just a 10% gross margin (my estimate). This goes against the idea that Apple is being unfair to developers when charging 15% or 30% revenue share. While some developers want Apple to charge them more like 5% to 10% of revenue, or nothing at all, such revenue share arrangements would likely lead to the App Store being operated at a loss considering that a majority of apps do not share any revenue with Apple.

It’s easy to look at Apple pricing and take a cynical view that management is trying to squeeze as much profit as possible from its users. However, Apple’s incentive isn’t to milk users for all they can but rather to expand the Apple user base and provide users great experiences. Apple’s ability to grab monopoly-like share of industry profits isn’t a result of there being an Apple Tax but rather a byproduct of Apple following a design-led product strategy that ultimately marginalizes industries.

Listen to the corresponding Above Avalon podcast episode for this article here.

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