Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple’s Transportation Ambition, Tesla 4Q22 Deliveries, Tesla’s Problem (Daily Update)

We begin with some words on Project Titan. Two weeks ago, the newest Above Avalon Report, “Project Titan: Apple’s Transportation Ambition,” was published. The discussion then turns to Tesla. The company reported 4Q22 delivery data. We go over the numbers and what Neil views as a problem for Tesla.


Hello everyone. Welcome to 2023.

If you took time off, I hope it was a good and relaxing stretch. Some people are still away from the office this week, so we will use the next two days to return to a regular routine.

Several members emailed me over the break about Apple topics and developments that popped up in the news (China, stock price volatility, demand issues, risks in 2023). We will get to those topics, including my broader thoughts heading into 2023.

For today, we will focus on a topic that was initially not going to be on my “key discussion topics” list for 2023: electric vehicles.

Let’s jump right in.


Apple’s Transportation Ambition

Two weeks ago, the newest Above Avalon Report, “Project Titan: Apple’s Transportation Ambition” was published. You can find the report in your inbox – it was sent out December 22th at 10:48 pm ET. To those members who recently joined, you can access the report via the archive here.

Having a report dedicated to Project Titan has been on my to-do list for some time. It had become difficult for members to go through dozens of updates to piece together the history and motivation behind Project Titan.

Over the years, the Project Titan topic has become unwieldy at times. Periodic reporting has had a very short-term perspective, rarely providing readers the big picture. One is typically left with the impression that Titan is a revolving door within Apple with management constantly changing long-term objectives. That’s not reality.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.

(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)


Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Project Titan: Apple’s Transportation Ambition (Above Avalon Report)

An examination of Apple’s electric car R&D project.

Written by Neil Cybart – December 22nd, 2022

Since 2015, dozens of Above Avalon daily updates have been dedicated to discussing the latest developments involving Project Titan, Apple’s electric car R&D project. This report serves as both a summary of Titan developments to date as well as an examination of Apple’s path forward in transportation.

Rethinking Cars

What is an automobile?

How does one use an automobile?

Why do automobiles look the way they do?

Anyone who has owned or driven an automobile has formed answers to these questions over the span of their driving experiences. Ask the same questions to someone who has never driven an automobile, and the answers would be enlightening. Driving an automobile is not natural. We need to teach ourselves the art of navigating a heavy machine composed of thousands of little parts.

Is the driving learning experience focused on suppressing intuition in order for the user to adapt to a machine that hasn't changed much in decades?

Is it possible to make an automobile more intuitive so that someone with no driving experience can hop in and get to where they want to go in a much more enjoyable way than that which exists today?

Henry Ford had a very simple goal with the Model T: Set the world free.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this report. Members can read the full report here. An audio version of this report is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.

(Members: Reports are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)


Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

  • Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching a podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.

  • Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.

  • Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.

  • Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.

  • Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.

  • Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

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