Neil Cybart 10/22/24 Neil Cybart 10/22/24

Netflix 3Q24 Earnings, Netflix and the Scripted Content High Road, Disney Moves Away From App Store In-App Purchase

Happy Tuesday. We will kick things off with Netflix's earnings. The discussion will then turn to a noteworthy development on the App Store front regarding Disney.

Let's jump in.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions.

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

An audio version of the newsletter is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-ons.

Neil Cybart 7/23/24 Neil Cybart 7/23/24

Netflix 2Q24 Earnings, Netflix Growth, Wall Street Giving Netflix Green Light to Spend

Hello everyone.

There continues to be quite a bit of interest in what’s unfolding in video and music streaming. While Netflix (and Spotify) appear to be finding their strides, Apple's strategy is increasingly being drawn into question by the press and some users. There are various topics that we will discuss. For today, we will dissect Netflix's earnings.

Let's jump in.

Netflix 2Q24 Earnings

Like how we cover Apple earnings, there is value found in setting the stage before diving headfirst into Netflix’s numbers.

For the past few quarters, Netflix has seen very strong paid subscriber growth. Instead of growth being driven organically by Netflix expanding its installed base, the company has seen success in getting existing viewers to begin paying via a password sharing crackdown. The lack of installed base expansion is one reason why management has been trying to move Wall Street's focus away from subscriber growth and to engagement and revenue.

Another development to watch has been signs of consumers feeling fatigued from higher subscription prices. In countries that have the option of going the lower-priced ad-supported route, approximately 35% of new Netflix signups had been going in that direction (pre-2Q24). Netflix has been putting its thumb on the scale to drive that percentage higher.

For CY2Q24 (April to June results), Netflix grew paid subs by a healthy 8M (to 278M). As shown in the exhibit below,

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Neil Cybart 1/26/24 Neil Cybart 1/26/24

Netflix 4Q23 Earnings, Netflix Buys Rights for WWE Raw, Spatial F1 Racing on Apple Vision Pro

Some weeks, the news flow comes together in such a way as to result in a fun conversation at the end of the week covering several related topics. We will do that in today’s update. The update will begin with Netflix earnings, turn to Netflix getting into live sports/entertainment, and then conclude with a closer look at an intriguing concept for live sports consumption on Vision Pro.

An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.

Neil Cybart 7/21/23 Neil Cybart 7/21/23

Netflix Earnings, Netflix Won't Want to Be Compared to YouTube

Hello everyone. The CY2Q23 earnings season covering April to June has officially begun. We kick things off in streaming land with Netflix. The update begins with Neil’s thoughts on Netflix’s earnings. The discussion then turns to why Neil doesn’t think Netflix will want to be compared to YouTube.

Netflix Earnings

Three months ago, the major takeaway from Netflix earnings was subscriber gains had returned at the potential risk of less attractive user economics (i.e. lower profitability per user). That major theme remained intact with Netflix’s 2Q23 earnings release.

As shown below, Netflix’s subscriber growth appears to be firmly back on track.

Netflix is back up to 18M new subs on a TTM basis. Although that’s roughly half of where growth was during the pandemic, it is up materially from the 2022 lows. This will likely alleviate concerns held by those who were disappointed at Netflix seemingly hitting a paid subscriber ceiling of 220M to 230M accounts.

Price cuts outside the U.S., the launch of an ad-supported tier in a number of countries, and to a lesser extent, the password sharing crackdown, are leading to renewed paid subscriber growth.

On the surface, strong subscriber growth is great news for Netflix. However, there are a few elements to the growth that caught my attention.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here . An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.

(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

Neil Cybart 4/26/23 Neil Cybart 4/26/23

Netflix Earnings, The Allure of Advertising in Video Streaming, HBO Max's Rebranding (Daily Update)

Hello everyone. We have a media / video streaming Tuesday on tap for today’s update. We will begin with Netflix earnings. The Netflix narrative is quickly shifting to advertising. That will lead to a few other streaming-related news items.

Netflix Earnings

Last week, Netflix reported 1Q23 earnings.

The good news for Netflix is that 1Q23 marks the third consecutive quarter of subscriber gains. Price cuts outside the U.S. and the launch of an ad-supported tier in a number of countries are offsetting higher churn from a still limited crackdown in password sharing. Netflix will start the password sharing crackdown in the U.S. soon.

The following exhibit looks at overall subscriber growth trends.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.

(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

Neil Cybart 1/23/23 Neil Cybart 1/23/23

Netflix Earnings, Reed Hastings Steps Down as co-CEO, Netflix Partners With Nike Training Club (Daily Update)

Hello everyone. One item on the agenda this week is to look ahead at Apple’s 2023 in terms of opportunities and challenges. For today’s update, we will examine Netflix’s earnings published last week. 4Q22 earnings season has arrived. The discussion will include Neil’s thoughts on Reed Hastings stepping down as Netflix co-CEO. Let’s jump right in.

Netflix Earnings

Last Thursday, Netflix reported CY4Q22 results. Paid subscriber results (+7.7M) beat management’s guidance of +4.5M.

Looking through the granular results by operating segments, there were no major changes on the subscriber front. As shown below in the following exhibit which tracks Netflix paid net streaming subscriber additions on a TTM, the trend continues to be down except for a slight bump higher in Latin America. Given Netflix's very weak first half of 2022, management's guidance commentary for modest subscriber growth in 1Q23 would lead to stabilization in new user growth on a TTM basis.

(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

Neil Cybart 10/19/22 Neil Cybart 10/19/22

Netflix 3Q22 Earnings, Netflix Wants a New Narrative, Netflix's ARPU Mission (Daily Update)

Hello everyone.

We are going to talk more about the iPad line tomorrow. There are a growing number of questions as to what Apple announced (and didn’t announce) yesterday regarding the iPad. We will go over where I think Apple may take the iPad line from here.

Today’s update will be dedicated to Netflix earnings. As the company with the most paid subs in video land, at least until Disney provides its updated subscriber total, Netflix results can provide insights as to how the paid video industry is evolving.

Let’s jump right in.

Netflix 3Q22 Earnings

Netflix successfully played Wall Street's expectations game. The 3Q22 paid subscriber guidance that management gave three months ago was very weak. Management was essentially calling for no subscriber growth on a global basis (+1.0M) despite having a strong quarter from a video content perspective.

(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

Neil Cybart 2/8/21 Neil Cybart 2/8/21

The Above Avalon Daily Update Recap (January 2021)

Along with publishing periodic articles that are accessible to everyone, I publish daily updates all about Apple. These updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around Apple business and strategy analysis, my perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors, and comprehensive coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes. These daily updates have become widely read and influential in the tech sector and Apple universe. The updates are now also available in podcast form called Above Avalon Daily.

Since 90% to 95% of my time is dedicated to researching and writing the daily updates and recording the corresponding daily podcast, I am introducing a new Above Avalon product called The Above Avalon Daily Update Recap to make it easy for everyone to keep abreast of where my focus has been. Each curated recap of the prior month’s updates includes access to one story from a daily update that I particularly enjoyed writing in the previous month.

The daily updates are available exclusive to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.

The following story was featured in the Above Avalon Daily Update published on January 14th, 2021 (prior to Apple reporting 1Q21 earnings).

Projections for Apple’s Buyback Pace

Apple has $79B of net cash on the balance sheet. By funding share repurchases and cash dividends, Apple has been gradually chipping away at that total (was $153B in FY17).

Based on my projections, Apple will be able to sustain the current pace of share buyback (approximately $70B per year) for an additional 11 to 13 quarters before net cash gets close to zero.

Where does my 11 to 13 quarters estimate come from?

There is a $25B delta between the amount of cash Apple is returning to shareholders each year ($90B) and annual free cash flow ($65B) - the amount of cash generation leftover after management has paid all of the bills and maintained / funded capital investments. Free cash flow is used to manage debt in addition to fund cash dividends and share repurchases. Meanwhile, Apple has $79B of net cash on the balance sheet. ($79B / $25B = 3.2 years or 13 quarters).

It is important to note that these are rough calculations. Apple’s cash needs will fluctuate year to year. This will have an impact on Apple's free cash flow. In addition, it would not be essential to know the exact moment net cash neutral is obtained, if Apple ever technically gets to that level, but rather when net cash is in the vicinity of $0.

Once Apple reaches a net cash neutral position, my estimate is Apple’s buyback pace will slow to something closer to $50B per year. This total is primarily derived from my Apple free cash flow projection ($70B per year) minus cash dividend expense ($15B per year). Over time, Apple's buyback pace can certainly increase to remain in line with free cash flow growth. The reverse is true as well - a slowdown in free cash flow may result in less buyback.

These estimates assume that Apple management continues to view share buyback as attractive at the current share price. That decision will ultimately be based on management's estimate of Apple's intrinsic value. Based on Apple's most recent buyback activity, management thinks Apple's intrinsic value is higher than $115 per share.

In January, a total of 15 daily updates containing 45 stories were published. Those 45 stories have been rearranged into the following categories:

Earnings / Financials

My Apple 1Q21 Estimates, Wall Street’s Expectations, The Apple Number to Watch (My Apple 1Q21 earnings preview)
Apple Earnings, The Most Important Apple Number, Apple Remains Misunderstood (My Apple 1Q21 earnings review)
Apple Stock Buyback Debate (Continued)
Apple Discloses Key App Store Financial Data Point

Product Strategy

Business Strategy

Management / Leadership

Apple Peers and Competitors

Industry Analysis

Thursday Q&A (The following questions were submitted by Above Avalon members.)

All of the following stories are accessible to members via the Daily Updates archive. Access to the archive is a benefit attached to membership. For new members, information about accessing the archive will be sent to you after going through the signup process.

The daily updates are also available via a private podcast called Above Avalon Daily. In January, 14 podcast episodes were recorded for a total of 200 minutes of audio. The daily podcast is available as an add-on that can be attached to an Above Avalon membership. More information on the podcast is available here. All prior episodes will appear in your podcast player after you sign up for the Above Avalon Daily podcast.