Neil Cybart 3/19/24 Neil Cybart 3/19/24

Project Titan Follow-Up, Apple vs. EU Follow-Up

We close out the week with a few follow-ups to topics that continue to generate buzz among Above Avalon members. We will begin with Project Titan and then turn to the suggestion that Apple should leave the EU.

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Neil Cybart 7/6/23 Neil Cybart 7/6/23

Tesla 2Q23 Deliveries, Ford’s EV Strategy, Doug Field’s Odd Interview With the AP

Hello everyone. For today’s update, we will take a spin through the EV space. While headsets have grabbed the attention in recent months, the EV industry continues to evolve in an effort to find itself. We begin with Neil’s thoughts on Tesla’s latest deliveries numbers. The discussion then turns to Ford’s EV strategy, including quite the odd interview from Doug Field regarding Ford’s transition to EVs.

Let’s jump right in.

Tesla 2Q23 Deliveries

In a press release issued on Sunday, here’s Tesla:

“In the second quarter, we produced nearly 480,000 vehicles and delivered over 466,000 vehicles.”

Here are Tesla's 2Q23 deliveries broken out by model:

Analysts were expecting Tesla to report 445,000 deliveries in 2Q23 so 466,000 is a 5% beat to consensus. In 2Q22, Tesla deliveries were constrained due to COVID lockdowns in China. Backing out that one-time impact, Tesla deliveries were up around 45%. Given recent questions surrounding demand, that will be considered a good growth number.

The following chart shows delivery growth on a year-over-year basis (using a trailing twelve months basis).

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Neil Cybart 12/8/22 Neil Cybart 12/8/22

More on Project Titan, Transportation Problems, Apple Announces New Data Protections (Daily Update)

Hello everyone. There a few follow-ups related to Project Titan that are worth discussing in today's update. We will then turn to Apple’s user data protection announcements.

More on Project Titan

Apple does not have something equivalent to a “future bets” team or division tasked with coming up with futuristic technologies that may or may not be commercially viable. Instead, R&D dollars are funneled to teams and technology with a defined purpose. This is part of Apple’s collaborative culture consisting of small teams comprised of people from various disciplines and backgrounds who are given the autonomy to think differently.

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Neil Cybart 12/7/22 Neil Cybart 12/7/22

Apple’s Electric Car Plans, Apple Car Design Questions, Apple’s Largest Risk (Daily Update)

We begin today’s update with Neil’s thoughts on the Bloomberg article about Project Titan. The discussion then turns to an in-depth examination of Apple Car from a design perspective. We conclude with a look at what Neil positions as Apple’s largest risk.

Hello everyone. Happy Wednesday. We have a lot to discuss so let’s jump right in.

Apple’s Electric Car Plans

Over at Bloomberg, here’s Mark Gurman:

“Apple Inc. has scaled back ambitious self-driving plans for its future electric vehicle and postponed the car’s target launch date by about a year to 2026, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The car project, dubbed Titan inside the company, has been in limbo for the past several months as Apple executives grappled with the reality that its vision for a fully autonomous vehicle — without a steering wheel or pedals — isn’t feasible with current technology.

In a significant shift for the project, the company is now planning a less-ambitious design that will include a steering wheel and pedals and only support full autonomous capabilities on highways, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private.”

Gurman’s article came across as something of a catch basin for everything we already know about Titan. Most of the details we have discussed in the past either in these updates or over at AboveAvalon.com. For example:

Apple VP of technology Kevin Lynch’s involvement (more detail here).
Apple’s vehicle proving grounds in Arizona (more detail here).
Former BMW executive and Canoo co-founder Ulrich Kranz’s involvement and Apple’s interest in the company’s unique approach to automobiles (more detail here).
Apple’s land purchases around San Jose International airport strongly pointing to being car related (more detail here). It's not clear if Apple still plans on putting affordable housing on some of the land, as Apple said it would back in 2019.
Canadian involvement regarding QNX (more detail here).
Lidar/radar usage, along with cameras.
Apple's R&D explosion over the years (more detail here).

Bloomberg once again tried to position its report as AAPL stock moving news, which is unfortunate.

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Neil Cybart 11/12/21 Neil Cybart 11/12/21

The Above Avalon Daily Update Recap (3Q21 Edition)

I publish exclusive daily updates all about Apple throughout the week. The updates contain my perspective and analysis on Apple’s business, product and financial strategy, and competitive relationships with a range of companies. The updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and tech and are ideally suited to executives, investors, project managers, and hobbyists. When combined with the periodic articles and podcast episodes, which are accessible to everyone, the updates provide the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

During the third quarter of 2021 (July to September), 48 Above Avalon daily updates were published, chronicling both noteworthy industry and Apple-specific stories as well as my Apple research. The major themes discussed during the quarter included:

Developments in the App Store regulatory space (South Korea, Japan, Epic Games Vs. Apple trial).
Apple TV / paid video streaming industry developments.
Apple unveiling its Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM) detection plan and the resulting fallout.
Project Titan leadership changes and developments in the EV space.

The Above Avalon Daily Update Recap (3Q21 Edition) goes over these major themes and the corresponding daily updates.

(To access the following updates, become a member and then request access to the daily updates archive found in Slack.)

Developments in the App Store Regulatory Space (South Korea, Japan, Epic Games Vs. Apple trial)

After years of discussion and debate regarding Apple’s handling of the App Store, there was notable movement on the App Store legal and regulatory fronts. During 3Q, Apple notched two App Store victories in U.S. courts, South Korea rushed an anti-App Store bill through, and Apple began to loosen its grip on some of the more controversial App Store guidelines.

Apple TV / Paid Video Streaming Industry Developments

The paid video streaming industry continues to intrigue as it expands and evolves. There were a number of noteworthy events and developments during 3Q including Netflix’s move into gaming, a “Ted Lasso” bonanza, and the Netflix vs. Disney dynamic. I also went over my estimate for the number of Apple TV+ subscribers.

Apple Unveiling Its Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM) Detection Plan and the Resulting Fallout

In August, Apple lit a firestorm of a debate by announcing a plan to combat child sexual abuse. The plan ended up drawing into question a number of philosophical questions as to Apple’s role in society and the company’s reason for being.

Project Titan leadership changes

Apple’e electric car project continued to move forward with a major leadership change as Apple Watch software chief Kevin Lynch replaced Doug Field as Titan head.

A few additional updates published between July to September stood out to me.

The Amazon Event, Amazon’s Play for Neighborhoods, Amazon Astro (Sep 29, 2021)
Square Acquires Afterpay, Square vs. Apple, The Future of Credit (Aug 3, 2021)
Apple’s Services Journey, A Different Way of Thinking of Apple One, Apple Services Evolution (Jul 13, 2021)

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