The State of the Mac (Above Avalon Report)
An examination of Apple’s oldest product category.
Written by Neil Cybart - November 21st, 2023
Three years into the Mac’s Apple Silicon transition, the product category has never been stronger. It’s a stark difference from where the Mac was a decade ago. And yet, Mac sales are back to the same level as they were pre-Apple Silicon. This report reflects on where the Mac has come from and where it is going as Apple heads into spatial computing.
The Mac’s Past
The 2010s represented a complicated decade for the Mac. While Apple never lost its optimistic and upbeat tone with the Mac, the product category experienced a few highs but also the lowest of lows.
The best way of describing Apple’s old approach with the Mac (pre-2017) was aggressiveness in getting users to shift to mobile devices. (For this Report, we won’t go over Mac strategy pre-iPhone).
Apple was seeing unprecedented demand for iPhone and iPad with strong installed base growth. Even though Apple was continuing to add new users to the Mac installed base, the rates were not at the same level as what was unfolding with its mobile siblings.
In the early and mid 2010s, a going theory on display with Apple’s product development strategy was that many Mac users would eventually migrate to iPad (and iPhone). These Mac users were not developers and had no need for pro Mac software. Instead, they were sticking with the Mac for other reasons, including familiarity. Based on subsequent Apple disclosure, parts of that theory proved correct. In early 2017, Apple said 70% to 85% of Mac users weren’t relying on professional Mac software. This group was thought to be a prime target market for the iPad.
The implications of this Mac mindset went far. As workflows migrated from the Mac to iPad, the Mac line would be winnowed down to essentially three models: the MacBook, iMac, and Mac Pro. At least, that was the theory. Although this goal wasn’t directly telegraphed in ad campaigns or commercials, Apple’s actions with the Mac spoke volumes. The Mac mini went years without an update. The now infamous butterfly keyboard debacle was ultimately Apple trying to make MacBooks as thin as possible (keys stability was positioned as another selling point). Other new ideas included the Touch Bar and the 12-inch MacBook form factor. The takeaway wasn’t that Apple gave up with the Mac or was losing interest (far from it). Some of the Mac features were clearly inspired by the success seen with Apple's mobile devices. Instead, Apple appeared to be struggling with understanding what users, especially those with pro workflows, were looking for in a Mac.
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Thoughts on Apple’s “Scary Fast” Event
Hello everyone. In today's update, we will go over my initial thoughts on Apple's event. There will likely be some carryover topics. However, given Apple's earnings, we will revert to earnings preview mode for Wednesday's update.
Let's jump right in.
Thoughts on Apple’s “Scary Fast” Event
Yesterday, Apple held an Apple Silicon event in which the company introduced its next generation (family) of chips (M3, M3 Pro, M3 Max).
Apple proceeded to discuss the first round of products to receive these chips:
MacBook Pro (14-inch and 16-inch): M3, M3 Pro, M3 Max
iMac (24-inch): M3
The event clocked in at just 30 minutes. With Apple streaming its presentation (available here) at the very unusual 8 pm ET, it was fair to assume Apple was going to keep things short and to the point. Many people pegged this as the shortest presentation Apple has put together in the current era of taped presentations. However, this past January, Apple released an 18-minute presentation to unveil updated Macs. The January presentation did not include Tim Cook though. Instead, John Ternus, SVP hardware engineering, was the MC.
Apple kept its attention yesterday focused on Apple Silicon and the Mac. We did not get any surprise Apple TV+ news or updates. Instead, Apple had some fun with the event’s proximity to Halloween, going so far as to include a few Halloween treats (CGI bats/smoke at Apple Park) and Mac-themed easter eggs like showing the Apple pirate flag originating from the early Mac days.
This was also apparently the first Apple presentation shot entirely with an iPhone (with plenty of accessories) which generated a ton of buzz after the event.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.