Apple Updates the iPad Mini, Apple Intelligence and Device Support, A Different Way to Think About Apple Intelligence
Hello everyone. On Wednesday, Apple unveiled an updated iPad mini. We will begin today’s email with my thoughts on the iPad mini and the update. The discussion will then evolve into a few thoughts regarding Apple Intelligence.
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iPad Pro and the Goal of Perfection (Above Avalon Report)
An examination of Apple’s iPad strategy as the new iPad Pro goes on sale.
Written by Neil Cybart – May 17th, 2024.
The state of iPad is strong as Apple moves that much closer to its long-held goal of having the iPad become a magical piece of glass. If there is such a thing as an ideal state – a state of perfection – for iPad, Apple sure seems to be getting close. Of course, the company will never get to that point. Perfection is not an end state but rather a state of mind.
Apple has rightly resisted calls to morph iPad into a Mac hybrid. Criticism that the iPad has somehow fallen short of its initial expectations fail to acknowledge the product category’s positioning within the Apple ecosystem. iPad is a touch-first computer offering more versatility than any other Apple product category.
With the iPad Pro cementing its place as the marquee iPad, a discussion regarding the new iPad Pro will inevitably evolve into a discussion about the current state of the iPad.
We begin such a discussion by looking at the iPad’s early days.
Table of Contents
History
The New iPad Pro
iPad Strategy
Criticism
My iPad Theory
Future
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My 2Q24 Apple Estimates, Expectations for Apple's 3Q24 Guidance, My Updated Apple Earnings Model
Happy Wednesday. One quick thing before we get to the second half of my earnings preview.
Financial Models Add-on. As a reminder, members now have access to my iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch installed base models with the Financial Models add-on. These models make it possible to estimate device unit sales, the number of devices in the wild over time, product upgrade cycle length, percent of device sales going to new users versus existing users by year and more. For those of you who purchased the Financial Models add-on, all installed base models have been updated ahead of earnings. You can access the models at any time by logging into your Above Avalon membership account here and going to the Digital Package tab (shown below). My earnings model has also been uploaded so that it will always be available in the same tab for easy access.
The Financial Models add-on is designed to be a perfect companion for AAPL investors wanting to take a deep dive into Apple’s financials as well as Apple competitors and suppliers needing to better understand the marketplace dynamic. For pricing information and to purchase the add-on, check out this page.
My 2Q24 Apple Estimates
Here are my granular estimates for Apple’s 2Q24:
Revenue: $91.9B (consensus: $90.0B)
Overall gross margin: 46.9% (guidance: 46% to 47%)
Gross margin (HW): 37.4%
Gross margin (Services): 74.6%
EPS: $1.59 (consensus: $1.50)
iPhone revenue:
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iPhone Sales Angst Continues, Sales on Apple Products Spread, Tesla Announces 10% Layoff
We kick things off with my thought’s on iPhone sales trends in the first three months of 2024. The discussion then turns to more retailers running with surprisingly large discounts on Apple products. We conclude with Tesla layoffs.
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Schools Begin to Question Chromebooks, Apple’s Evolving Strategy for Education, Revisiting iPad Unit Sales
Hello everyone.
As is often the case, a recent news event opened the door to a discussion that didn’t quite fit in with the prior news cycle. Yesterday, we talked about the new Apple Pencil (USB-C). This led to a broader look at the iPad. Back in late August, a WSJ article about Chromebooks appeared on my radar. It’s a great time to look back at that article in context of Apple’s iPad strategy. The discussion includes a look at iPad unit sales trends and Apple’s evolving iPad strategy for education.
Let’s jump right in.
Schools Begin to Question Chromebooks
Here’s the WSJ’s Nicole Nguyen:
“Low-price, easy-to-use Chromebooks were once a boon to cost-conscious schools. Educators say the simple laptops are no longer a good deal.
Models have shot up in price in the past four years. Constant repairs add to the cost. Google imposes expiration dates, even if the hardware still works. This year, Google ceases support for 13 models. Next year, 51 models will expire.
These surging costs are presenting a predicament for anyone who runs a school and wants to educate children. Some administrators say they are throwing precious funding at a product that just doesn’t last long enough. Doubling the lifespan of Chromebooks could save public schools—and taxpayers—an estimated $1.8 billion, according to U.S. PIRG, a public-interest research group that analyzed Chromebook data.
Chromebooks have no second life. When they expire, they become e-waste. By contrast, Macs and PCs can run apps even after their native software is no longer supported. They can even be repurposed into Chromebook-like devices.”
While the article was filled with anecdotes, the broader thesis regarding rising costs associated with Chromebooks usage over time rings true. In the face of higher inflation and interest rates, there has been a broader move across the industry to place greater emphasis on a device’s longevity and residual value. It’s been a key focus area for Apple as better device durability and longevity lead to higher customer satisfaction and loyalty, even if it means less frequent upgrading.
Concerns involving rising cost of ownership and inadequate device longevity would represent the first kind of pushback against Chromebooks that actually has some legs. There are a few factors at play here.
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q23 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Hello everyone.
In today’s update, we will focus on Apple’s 3Q23 earnings Q&A session with analysts. After recapping each question-and-answer exchange that occurred on the call between Apple and sell-side analysts, we will go over my thoughts / response to the exchange. Let’s go beyond what was talked about on the call.
NOTE: The following earnings call questions (“Q (Sell-Side Firm)”) and answers (“Cook” or “Luca”) have been cut, summarized, paraphrased, and rearranged for clarity. To read the full question and answer exchanges, Seeking Alpha offers a written transcript here.
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q23 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Consumer Behavior
Q (Morgan Stanley): How is the consumer behaving today versus 90 days ago? Are there geographical differences?
Cook: Emerging markets was a strength. China saw acceleration. Europe saw a record for the June quarter. There are “some really good signs in most places in the world.” The smartphone market remains challenging in the U.S.
My response: The going theory for why the U.S. has been the outlier in terms of iPhone weakness is that economic anxiety (higher inflation and rates) combined with consumer behavior shifts (budget shift to services, leisure, eating out, and travel) have strained the appetite for consumer electronics. It also should be pointed out that the U.S. has one of, if not the highest, iPhone sales share in the world. There are fewer people in a position to switch to iPhone.
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Apple 3Q23: By the Numbers, The Most Impressive Apple Number, About That Weak iPad Number
Today's special Friday edition of the Daily Update will be focused on reviewing Apple’s earnings. The idea is to keep things broad and look at the big picture takeaways. We also examine how Apple’s results compared to Neil’s expectations. The discussion will continue next week.
Hello everyone. We will begin reviewing Apple's FY3Q23 results. Let's jump right in.
Apple 3Q23: By the Numbers
The themes that guided the past few quarters for Apple were present in the company’s FY3Q23 results. Emerging markets strength is being offset by a slowdown in iPhone upgrading in the U.S. Meanwhile, solid Services revenue generation is being offset by weak Mac and iPad results. The result is mostly flat revenue growth with FX continuing to serve as a growth headwind (Apple’s FX hedging program creates a lag in receiving any weaker dollar benefit).
This past Monday, we went over three factors that point to FY2024 being a better one for Apple financially. Following Apple’s FY3Q23 results and earnings call, there has been no change in my thinking.
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My Apple 2Q23 Estimates, Expectations for Apple's Capital Management Changes, My Revised Apple Earnings Model (Daily Update)
Apple reports FY2Q23 earnings on Thursday. Today’s update contains the second half of Neil’s earnings preview. The first half is available here. The update begins with Neil’s granular financial estimates. The discussion includes qualitative explanations for each of Apple’s product categories. We then look at Neil’s expectations for what Apple will announce regarding its cash dividend and share repurchase authorization. We conclude with Neil’s updated Apple earnings model and how the model has changed over the past three months. Access to Neil’s Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.
Hello everyone. Similar to previous quarters, with Apple releasing earnings tomorrow, Thursday’s update will be pushed out a day so that there is a special edition Friday version of the daily update.
Let’s jump into the second half of my earnings preview.
My Apple 2Q23 Estimates
Here are my granular estimates for Apple’s 2Q23:
Revenue: $95.7B (consensus: $93.0B)
Overall gross margin: 44.6% (guidance: 43.5% to 44.5%)
Gross margin (HW): 37.5%
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Inside Apple’s Record Mac Quarter, What’s Going On With iPad Sales?, Charting Apple’s Ecosystem Growth (Daily Update)
In today's update, we will continue our Apple 4Q22 earnings review with a few granular takeaways. In particular, we look beyond the Mac and iPad numbers. Tomorrow, our focus will be geared toward everything that was discussed on management's earnings call.
Inside Apple’s Record Mac Quarter
Apple reported $11.5B of Mac revenue in 4Q22. It was a quarterly record that exceeded my estimate by a significant $1.5B. Prior to 4Q22, the previous Mac revenue record was $10.9B (in 1Q22).
Diving deeper into 4Q22 Mac results, things become more complicated. We may be seeing something equivalent to a near-term plateau, or growth air pocket, for Mac sales.
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Don't Feel Bad for the iPad
Last month marked the tenth anniversary of Apple unveiling the iPad. The occasion took on a somber feel as the most common reaction in tech circles ended up being sadness and disappointment for what the iPad had failed to become. While some are convinced that the iPad is in some way a victim of neglect, mismanagement, or even worse, such feelings are misplaced. We don’t need to feel bad for the iPad.
Anniversary Reactions
Apple unveiled the iPad on January 27th, 2010. To mark the tenth anniversary of the unveiling, a few publications had articles recapping the iPad’s first decade. Some of the reactions were complicated, to put it gently.
Here’s John Gruber, over at Daring Fireball, in a post titled, “The iPad Awkwardly Turns 10”:
“[Steve] Jobs’s on-stage pitch was exactly right. The iPad was a new class of device, sitting between a phone and a laptop. To succeed, it needed not only to be better at some things than either a phone or laptop, it needed to be much better. It was and is.
Ten years later, though, I don’t think the iPad has come close to living up to its potential. By the time the Mac turned 10, it had redefined multiple industries. In 1984 almost no graphic designers or illustrators were using computers for work. By 1994 almost all graphic designers and illustrators were using computers for work. The Mac was a revolution. The iPhone was a revolution. The iPad has been a spectacular success, and to tens of millions it is a beloved part of their daily lives, but it has, to date, fallen short of revolutionary.”
Ben Thompson, over at Stratechery, agreed with Gruber and went further in his own article, “The Tragic iPad”:
“It’s tempting to dwell on the [Steve] Jobs point — I really do think the iPad is the product that misses him the most — but the truth is that the long-term sustainable source of innovation on the iPad should have come from 3rd-party developers. Look at [John] Gruber’s example for the Mac of graphic designers and illustrators: while MacPaint showed what was possible, the revolution was led by software from Aldus (PageMaker), Quark (QuarkXPress), and Adobe (Illustrator, Photoshop, Acrobat). By the time the Mac turned 10, Apple was a $2 billion company, while Adobe was worth $1 billion.
There are, needless to say, no companies built on the iPad that are worth anything approaching $1 billion in 2020 dollars, much less in 1994 dollars, even as the total addressable market has exploded, and one big reason is that $4.99 price point. Apple set the standard that highly complex, innovative software that was only possible on the iPad could only ever earn 5 bucks from a customer forever (updates, of course, were free).”
There were then tweets (lots of tweets), regarding the current state of iPad. Here are two:
Riccardo Mori: “What I believe is that the iPad and its OS could have been so much more than a reinvention of the computing wheel adapted for a touch interface.”
Loren Brichter: “[T]he App Store is what killed the iPad.”
You get the point. There was no shortage of writers, pundits, and industry analysts using the iPad’s 10th anniversary to give eulogies for the product in terms of its inability to be revolutionary, grab momentum, or even just meet expectations.
A handful of people talked highly of iPad on its anniversary. However, such perspectives were few and far between. Interestingly, the articles that were published still ended up including noteworthy disclaimers and qualifiers. For example, here’s Om Malik in “iPad at 10. An affair forever”:
“A decade after its introduction, I think the iPad is still an underappreciated step in the storied history of computing. If anything, it has been let down by the limited imagination of application developers, who have failed to harness the capabilities of this device.”
My Reaction
I hold a very different view of the iPad at 10 years old. In recapping the 2010s, I went so far as to position the iPad as one of two most important tech products of the decade (the iPhone being the other one). The iPad has become ubiquitous in various industries and sectors, and in the process, it has altered modern computing.
How can there be such a dramatic difference in opinion when it comes to iPad?
Different perspectives.
To see how important perspective becomes in this discussion, we need to go back to the iPad unveiling in January 2010.
Selling a Problem
A closer look at the iPad unveiling reveals it wasn’t that Steve successfully made the sales pitch for a new product category. Instead, Steve successfully sold consumers on a problem they weren’t even aware they faced.
A few daily tasks like email, web browsing, video watching, and mobile games could be better handled on a large piece of glass with multi-touch than on a small piece of glass with multi-touch (iPhones) or a non-multi touch device (MacBooks). Such juxtaposition elevated the iPad at the expense of the iPhone and Mac. The iPhone was positioned as a tiny device designed for portability while the Mac was positioned as a heavy beast blown out of the water by iPad when it comes to handling simple tasks.
Consumers agreed with Steve that there was an indeed a problem and that the iPad was a genuine solution to the problem. The iPad became Apple’s best-selling product out of the gate with the company selling 22 million devices in just the first 12 months. Ten years later, it is difficult to envision a new Apple product that will be able to grab that kind of adoption so quickly.
The iPhone
In January 2010, the iPhone was more of an idea and a promise than anything else. When the iPad was unveiled, there were only about 30 million people using an iPhone. Apple now sells that many iPhones in about two months. In 2010, it was the iPad, not the iPhone, that was considered to be the more important product in the future.
Given such lofty expectations, maybe it shouldn't have come as a surprise that the iPad’s tenth anniversary was met with awkwardness, sorrow, and even sadness as some look at the product as a promise that wasn’t kept. However, the early promises found with the initial iPad were met. There was just an unexpected twist.
The iPhone ended up carrying the vision found with a larger piece of glass supporting multi-touch that Steve unveiled on stage in January 2010. As iPhone screens became larger over the years, the product leveraged the inspiration found with the initial iPad and turned it into something consumed by nearly a billion people. There are 32x more iPhone users in the world today than there were when the iPad was unveiled in 2010. The iPhone became an iPad that fit in one’s pocket. Based on the iPhone’s resounding success, it is fair to say that those early calls that the iPad would turn into something very big ended up being true.
A Pivot
Instead of raising the white flag and letting the iPad set sail into the sunset after being replaced by the iPhone, Apple pivoted the product category to accomplish two things:
Serve as a content creation machine (Apple Pencil for drawing / keyboard accessories for typing).
Represent a low-cost entry point into the Apple ecosystem ($329 starting price).
Those two changes gave the iPad a very successful second chapter. Unit sales have stabilized at 45 million per year with approximately 20 million new people entering the iPad installed base each year.
The iPad is currently shaping industries far more than some people are giving the product credit for. There are at least 350 million people using an iPad in some capacity. The iPad has indirectly added billions of dollars of market cap to companies ranging from Slack and Microsoft to Square when considering the product’s widespread adoption and influence in enterprise settings.
A Line in the Sand
The iPad has become a line in the sand between those who grew up on laptops and desktops and those who never felt comfortable with such devices. Apple finds itself walking a thin line when it comes to adding functionality to the iPad for some users while keeping the device’s simplicity and intuitiveness front and center for other users.
Multi-tasking is a great example of this battle. For instance, some Mac users are not pleased with Apple’s implementation of multi-tasking on the iPad. These users find multi-tasking on an iPad to be a mental exercise. Meanwhile, a portion of iPad users have no need or desire for multi-tasking on iPad. These users are also likely to view multi-tasking on a laptop or desktop as not intuitive. Going a week with no laptop or desktop usage will do interesting things to one’s perception about computing and intuitiveness. When returning to a laptop or desktop, the machines feel like taking a step back. Our brain has to be rewired to handle something that is inherently less intuitive.
The iPad’s Problem
Apple doesn't sell perfect products. There will always be room for improvement, refinement, and new thinking. In some ways, the lack of perfection is what serves as motivation for Apple to keep pushing. When defining the problems now facing the iPad, my criticism is a bit unconventional.
The iPad’s primary problem is that it is viewed by some as needing to be a laptop replacement in order to have any value. This unrealistic viewpoint has resulted in a type of expectational debt being placed on the device. The iPad is expected to become more like the Mac and macOS over time. This is problematic as the iPad is not a laptop replacement.
MacOS should not be positioned as inspiration for where to bring the iPad or iPadOS. This isn’t meant to belittle macOS. Instead, touch-based computing has blurred the line between consumer and professional devices. When debating content consumption versus content creation and the broader definition of work, there is a habit in tech circles to not consider how such terms have dramatically different meanings for hundreds of millions of people.
The takeaway is that the iPad has become a different kind of product, and it should be allowed to stand apart from the iPhone without being forced to replace macOS. Hence, there is iPadOS and things like Apple Pencil support. Instead of asking how best to handle multitasking on an iPad, a better question is to wonder what multi-tasking should even mean on an iPad. Such questions present new challenges regarding user interfaces and design.
Being Itself
Apple’s product strategy is to push all of its major product categories forward at the same time. This is different from pushing the iPhone forward and trying to have the iPad and Mac come along for the ride. Positioning the iPad as a content creation platform for the masses, designed to handle some tasks given to laptops and desktops while also handling completely new tasks, is a winning strategy. It allows the iPad to be itself while not forcing the product into a corner in order to satisfy certain segments of the Apple installed base.
A lot has changed during the iPad’s first 10 years. Some may be disappointed with how the iPad has evolved, even to the point of thinking Apple lost a great opportunity. However, I wouldn’t feel bad for a device that revealed the iPhone’s true potential and then became a different kind of content creation tool now used by more than 350 million people.
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For additional discussion on this topic, check out the Above Avalon daily update from March 2nd: The iPad’s First Decade, The iPad’s Second Decade.
Apple 4Q19 Earnings Expectation Meters
There is increased attention around Apple’s 4Q19 results. Apple shares are up 19% since the company reported 3Q19 results back on July 30th. Since the start of the year, AAPL shares are up 58% while the S&P 500 is up 21%. For a trillion dollar market cap company, such outperformance is noteworthy.
Apple’s strong stock performance has led to questions regarding what management will have to announce on Wednesday to meet or exceed expectations. At the same time, Apple’s 4Q19 results have the potential of containing some noise as Apple works through its flagship iPhone and Apple Watch launch. For example, the iPhone was not in demand / supply equilibrium by quarters end.
The following table contains my overall estimates for Apple’s 4Q19. My expectation is for Apple to report strong 4Q19 results and 1Q20 revenue guidance.
A detailed discussion of these estimates, including the methodology and perspective behind the numbers, is found in my Apple 4Q19 earnings preview available here. Above Avalon membership is required to read my earnings preview.
Each quarter, I publish expectation meters ahead of Apple's earnings release. Expectation meters turn single-point financial estimates into more useful ranges that aid in judging Apple's business performance. In each expectation meter, the white shaded area reflects my official single-point estimate. The gray shaded area represents a result that is considered near my estimate. A result that falls within this gray area signifies that the product or variable being measured is pretty much performing as expected. A result that falls in the green shaded area denotes strong performance and the possibility of me needing to raise my expectations for that particular item going forward. Vice versa, a result falling in the red shaded area denotes the possibility of needing to reduce my expectations going forward.
Over the years, the expectation meters have evolved with Apple’s changing business and financial disclosures. Ahead of Apple’s 4Q19 earnings, I am publishing three expectation meters:
Products vs. Services Revenue
iPhone vs. non-iPhone Revenue
1Q20 Revenue Guidance
Products vs. Services
Apple breaks out revenue into two categories: products (i.e. hardware) and services. The iPhone likely weighed on Apple’s 4Q19 products revenue due to both declining unit sales and a lower average selling price (ASP). The end result is products revenue that will show little to no growth. Partially offsetting lackluster growth in products, Apple’s Services revenue is expected to grow in the vicinity of 15%. This dynamic will likely improve in FY2020 as both products and services will once again contribute to Apple revenue growth.
iPhone vs. Non-iPhone
Another way of thinking about Apple’s business is to allocate the company’s various products and services into two buckets: iPhone and non-iPhone. Last quarter, Apple’s non-iPhone business registered more revenue than the iPhone business for the first time since 2012. It is unlikely that this dynamic will repeat itself in 4Q19 as the iPhone business gains revenue momentum due to the flagship iPhone launch.
Guidance
Consensus expects Apple to report $86B of revenue in 1Q20. That seems on the light side. My estimate is for Apple to announce 1Q20 revenue guidance in the range of $88B to $91B. Apple has to report more than $88.3B of revenue in 1Q20 to reach a new all-time record for quarterly revenue.
Apple has two tailwinds for issuing strong 1Q20 revenue guidance:
Apple is facing one of the easier year-over-year quarterly compares in years given the demand implosion in China seen in November and December 2018. This will make it that much easier for Apple to report revenue growth in 1Q20.
The environment is conducive to both Apple Watch and AirPods selling well during the 2019 holiday shopping season. Apple not only faces a lack of genuine smartwatch or wireless headphone competition, but also has strong product lines with attractive entry-level pricing available.
On the flip side, one headwind worth monitoring is declining iPhone ASP. Apple cut pricing of its lowest-priced flagship iPhone by $50. In addition, Apple remains aggressive with pricing outside the U.S.
Despite Apple’s strong stock price outperformance so far this year, the company continues to have the lowest forward valuation multiples among the Wall Street giants. A good argument can be made that Apple’s strong stock price outperformance in 2019 hasn’t been driven by expectations of strong 4Q19 numbers or even solid 1Q20 guidance. Instead, the marketplace may be betting on improved visibility around Apple’s financials through FY2021. The environment is becoming more hospitable for iPhone revenue growth to return in FY2020. At the same time, Apple wearables continue to gain momentum. There is then growing smoke around the idea of Apple potentially having a busy first half of CY2020 from a new product perspective.
My working Apple earnings model as well as my granular 4Q19 estimates including unit sales, ASP, and margin expectations, are available here. Above Avalon membership is required to read my full 4,000-word earnings preview. Access to my model is available to members at no additional cost.
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