Apple’s 3Q24 in Three Charts
Hello everyone.
While recording the podcast episode for yesterday’s update, it occurred to me that one part of our discussion could have benefited from a bit more explanation. While such explanation was added to the podcast, which does routinely happen when episodes are recorded, to ensure everyone received the explanation, the following passage was from yesterday’s update:
“Back in 2019, [Warren] Buffett trimmed a very small part of Berkshire’s Apple stake. When asked why, Buffett didn’t actually provide an answer other than to say Berkshire’s overall stake in Apple continues to move higher due to Apple's buyback program.”
Since Apple is retiring the shares that it repurchases, the overall number of shares outstanding has been declining. This means that each remaining outstanding share is entitled to a larger share of Apple’s future cash flow (and business). If Berkshire didn’t buy or sell any additional AAPL shares, their stake in Apple would gradually rise thanks to Apple’s buyback program.
If we assume that Buffett cuts Berkshire's AAPL stake so that it’s slightly larger than the next largest equity holding (say $30B fair value at 140M shares), that would equate to 0.9% of Apple. Over time, assuming Apple continues to buy back shares and Berkshire doesn’t sell any more shares, that Apple ownership percentage will rise. The buyback is a major reason why Buffett finds AAPL shares attractive.
We will continue our Apple 3Q24 earnings review. Let's jump in.
Apple’s 3Q24 in Three Charts
Last Friday, we went over how Apple’s 3Q24 earnings compared to my expectations. Results came in close to my estimates. Nearly every line item beat (HW gross margin was the only thing that missed).
We also discussed the largest takeaway from earnings: iPhone fundamentals continue to gradually improve and are becoming less of a drag on Apple's overall ecosystem growth.
Turning our attention to secondary themes from earnings, there were three:
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iPad Pro and the Goal of Perfection (Above Avalon Report)
An examination of Apple’s iPad strategy as the new iPad Pro goes on sale.
Written by Neil Cybart – May 17th, 2024.
The state of iPad is strong as Apple moves that much closer to its long-held goal of having the iPad become a magical piece of glass. If there is such a thing as an ideal state – a state of perfection – for iPad, Apple sure seems to be getting close. Of course, the company will never get to that point. Perfection is not an end state but rather a state of mind.
Apple has rightly resisted calls to morph iPad into a Mac hybrid. Criticism that the iPad has somehow fallen short of its initial expectations fail to acknowledge the product category’s positioning within the Apple ecosystem. iPad is a touch-first computer offering more versatility than any other Apple product category.
With the iPad Pro cementing its place as the marquee iPad, a discussion regarding the new iPad Pro will inevitably evolve into a discussion about the current state of the iPad.
We begin such a discussion by looking at the iPad’s early days.
Table of Contents
History
The New iPad Pro
iPad Strategy
Criticism
My iPad Theory
Future
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Schools Begin to Question Chromebooks, Apple’s Evolving Strategy for Education, Revisiting iPad Unit Sales
Hello everyone.
As is often the case, a recent news event opened the door to a discussion that didn’t quite fit in with the prior news cycle. Yesterday, we talked about the new Apple Pencil (USB-C). This led to a broader look at the iPad. Back in late August, a WSJ article about Chromebooks appeared on my radar. It’s a great time to look back at that article in context of Apple’s iPad strategy. The discussion includes a look at iPad unit sales trends and Apple’s evolving iPad strategy for education.
Let’s jump right in.
Schools Begin to Question Chromebooks
Here’s the WSJ’s Nicole Nguyen:
“Low-price, easy-to-use Chromebooks were once a boon to cost-conscious schools. Educators say the simple laptops are no longer a good deal.
Models have shot up in price in the past four years. Constant repairs add to the cost. Google imposes expiration dates, even if the hardware still works. This year, Google ceases support for 13 models. Next year, 51 models will expire.
These surging costs are presenting a predicament for anyone who runs a school and wants to educate children. Some administrators say they are throwing precious funding at a product that just doesn’t last long enough. Doubling the lifespan of Chromebooks could save public schools—and taxpayers—an estimated $1.8 billion, according to U.S. PIRG, a public-interest research group that analyzed Chromebook data.
Chromebooks have no second life. When they expire, they become e-waste. By contrast, Macs and PCs can run apps even after their native software is no longer supported. They can even be repurposed into Chromebook-like devices.”
While the article was filled with anecdotes, the broader thesis regarding rising costs associated with Chromebooks usage over time rings true. In the face of higher inflation and interest rates, there has been a broader move across the industry to place greater emphasis on a device’s longevity and residual value. It’s been a key focus area for Apple as better device durability and longevity lead to higher customer satisfaction and loyalty, even if it means less frequent upgrading.
Concerns involving rising cost of ownership and inadequate device longevity would represent the first kind of pushback against Chromebooks that actually has some legs. There are a few factors at play here.
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